Goldman Sachs FX Spot Desk Strategies

OVERVIEW => Retail sales today will be the main focus, where we are above consensus in our expectations (GS 0.8%, cons 0.5%). We maintain our moderate stance (no more than 1/3 of max risk) and hold on to our long USD position vs EUR and GBP, but have rotated into a small USDJPY short. 
{EU} EURUSD Lower=> EURUSD positioning remains light, with key levels for today: Support around 1.0500 and then 1.0450 (cycle low), while on the topside 1.0600 and then 1.0690-1.0700 should represent reasonable resistance levels. 
{GB} GBPUSD Lower => CPI print today with some risks for a negative print YoY with usual commodity and food price weakness to still act as a drag. US retail sales likely more significant with elevated expectations of a spring bounce from the previous three weak outcomes. Key levels: support at 1.4567 and 1.4500, while the first meaningful resistance level is 1.4720. 
{JN} USDJPY Lower => We like the pair lower now especially after yesterday’s comments from Hamada, with key levels:  resistance at 120.45-50, while support is well defined now at 119.45-65 – a break of which would open up the post NFP lows of 118.70-80.

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