Goldman Sachs Spot Desk Strategies

The countdown to NFP continues and in the meantime we have to endure whippy and rangy rather than directional markets, reduced liquidity becoming more of a factor as we move towards Easter. We maintain our moderate stance (currently around 1/3 of max), and hold on to our dollar length vs EUR and GBP.

{EU} EURUSD Lower => Today brings a decent slew of US data (US PMI , ADP and ISM manuf) which will gain some focus ahead of Friday’s main event. We maintain our conviction of EURUSD lower but we can expect more erratic gyrations with support down towards the week’s 1.0713 low and resistance at 1.0800 and 1.0850 .

{GB} GBPUSD Lower  => Another light volume day in the void pre Payrolls but combination of the data and month end enough to rattle short term positioning, most notably in EURGBP. Intraday GBP should find some resistance towards 1.4900 having overstretched yesterday, support at yesterday’s lows of 1.4755,  EURGBP yesterday’s lows of 0.7223 support with 0.7342 above.

{JN} USDJPY Higher => USDJPY has recovered ground with expectations for addition BOJ easing as soon as April 30th beginning to build. We maintain preference to be long USDJPY but topside progress may be less pronounced than previous eases. Support comes in at 119.35/40 initially with 120.15/37 the immediate resistance band to respect into US figures this afternoon.

{CA} USDCAD Neutral => We remain neutral here, with key technical levels: watching support at 1.2635 and resistance up at 1.2835, cycle highs.

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