OVERVIEW => Positioning and conviction in the broader USD now feels at its lowest point for some time given the sharp retracement seen in April and the next move seems likely to be determined by confidence in the Q2 data.
{EU} EURUSD Flat=> The market has become impatient in its wait for an upturn in US data and is in the process of reducing risk . I remain flat and inclined for now to wait for a clear catalyst before looking to fade the Euro rally . Some resistance is likely at 1.1150 then 1.12; a close above this level could technically set up a move towards the 100dma at 1.1318 . Support back at the 55dma (1.0927) and at 1.0875 .
{GB} GBPUSD Lower => Highs yesterday of 1.5498 as a weak US GDP applies yet more pain for the USD. For time being it seems hard to step in the way of USD weakness and randomness likely to increase with month end. Some good resistance towards 1.5554 the highs from Feb however and risk reward here beginning to favour shorts. Support back towards 1.5350.
{JN} USDJPY Lower=> BoJ remained unchanged with an 8-1 decision in favour of maintaining the existing QQE program. The policy decision was not unanimous with one member (Kiuchi) calling for a tapering of the current program. USDJPY remains amazingly stable, and downside supported, despite the USD washout. We favour holding onto our short dated USDJPY puts. Support comes in at 118.55/70 and then 118.00/10 – resistance now 119.20/30 and 120.00/10.
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