EUR: Ultimately I think the trade that the market got overly engaged in prematurely will play out over the late summer and EURUSD will drift lower but in the short term conviction and positioning have been badly damaged. First resistance now at yesterday’s 1.0969 high and then towards 1.1035 , with support at the Asian low (1.0925) and back at 1.0870.
JPY: Positioning in USDJPY still feels light, with traction in the crosses (commod-JPY lower) starting to gain traction. 123.60/70 should offer initial support with the top of the cloud (123.27) acting as support through there. 123.90/95 will be sticky above, but with the US calendar offering little it’s tough to forecast a significant rally near term.
GBP: Given reduction in positioning risk reward of fading EURGBP again compelling with 0.7070 topside resistance, support back through previous cycle lows of 0.69885. Cable support at yesterday’s lows 1.5529 with 1.5626 topside.
AUD/NZD: We may need to see a new catalyst before the market is ready to reengage in AUD, especially as it is likely to be dragged round by the RBNZ. Levels: For AUD, Resistance is yesterday’s high of 0.7450 with the more defined levels of 0.7500 and 0.7535/40 above. Support comes in at overnight lows of 0.7372 and 0.7341 below there. NZD: Resistance at 0.6655 with 0.6725 above; support at 0.6545 with 0.6498 the cycle low.