Good Friday was not so good for the GBP (March 26th)

The GPB was the currency that suffered the most during the Holy Week. It closed 180 pips lower and the Gbp/Usd closed with a loss of 330 pips and was the mover of the week.
Apart from the GBP pairs the rest remained in relatively narrow ranges, an anticipation since most traders were away. Reduced liquidity increases the risk for higher volatility and despite the terrorist attack in Belgium most pairs did not get affected.The Usd/Jpy long that I mentioned last week is now 200 pips higher and the other trade that was triggered (long Aud/Usd) is slightly under water but I expect it to move higher. If you are long in both trades keep them and adjust your profit taking.

The strategy for the week is to short the Gbp pairs in the following order. Gbp/Aud, Gbp/Jpy and Gbp/Usd. It is always wiser to wait for retracements before entering a trade.

Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy and Eur/Aud remained inside “acceptable” ranges. As an Aud bull, I expect the Eur/Aud to be the first Euro pair that will start moving lower. I remain bearish for the Euro except for the Eur/Jpy that could also move higher in the case of a weakening Jpy.

The Aud/Usd should move higher. Next level of resistance is at least 200 pips higher and gives us space for trading. With the Usd/Cad I am little bit out of tune. I wanted the pair to start the week with a down move and then bounce, but it went up, as of Monday and it is now at a pivotal point and could continue in either direction. Everything will depend on Oil price.

This trading week will only start on Tuesday with Mrs Yellen making a speech at the Economic club of New York, Thursday is the turn of Gov Carney to hold a press conference in Tokyo and finally on Friday the NFP report will tell us the increase or decrease in the number of employed people.

 

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