GS FX Flows – FXWW Chatroom

EUR: I am looking for a test and break of the 1.1098 level and a continuing drift lower; resistance seen at 1.1220 and a stop can probably now be rolled down to 1.1250, above the week’s 1.1241 high, though 1.1270 was really the key break level.

JPY: Year-end flows will begin to dominate over the next couple of weeks, but it feels as though the bar for surprise on the US side of things is being lowered by the day – 120.50 the key level above.

GBP: Some upside risks to today’s print but a rally likely to be limited, we maintain bearish GBP preference with 1.5300 support below, 1.5400/20 topside resistance.

AUD: Yesterday, we tested the 0.7850 level twice, but stalled both times at the post-RBA high of 0.7845. Above there, our technician has highlighted further resistance between 0.7882-0.7905. Below is 0.7750 is the first immediate level, with a lower target of 0.7850.

CAD: Whilst it remains very much a close call we believe the risk reward into today favours being long USD given the relatively low chance priced via rates (5bps). Moreover the underlying tone of the meeting should be very dovish given that the BoC will likely be mindful that we are yet to still yet to see the real first order impact of the fall in Oil on the data. 

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