EUR: My conviction is low and I will stick with the plan of staying flexible and trying to scratch some value out of trading the range until we get a fresh catalyst.
JPY: Nikkei reports that the BOJ will consider revising their FY15 inflation forecasts to between 0.5 and 1% from 1% on Apr 30th are not too much of a surprise given the drag from energy prices, but we continue to believe that this will be unlikely to trigger immediate policy response with July more likely. Support comes in at 119.20/30 after which 118.50/60 should catch us – 119.80/85 and then 120.00/10 resistance levels above.
GBP: Directional view in the short term hard to hold in GBP with Election inspired selling offset by positive April seasonality. Rallies intraday should be capped towards 1.5000 with Friday’s highs of 1.5053, below yesterday’s lows the support at 1.4857.
AUD: The CPI figure was deemed as the decisive data point for May easing and last night’s number fairly inconclusive in either sense so the next RBA remains a 50/50. AUD should find resistance back above 0.7800 and 0.7850 and we believe real money will likely use this rally to get back into shorts post China easing given same headwinds still persists for Australia.