How polls and NFP affected all pairs

A poll from the Guardian was enough to send the GBP 450 pips lower (as a currency and according to my tool). The mover of the week was the Gbp/Nzd that lost almost 1000 pips  followed by the Gbp/Jpy and -670 and the Gbp/Aud with -650 pips.The next big event of the week was the NFP that came out on Friday and displays a dramatic decrease in employment change. For the first time after 5 years the number was so low (38k). Interestingly Thursday’s ADP was in line with the forecasted number and Unemployment Rate came out at 4,7% compared to a 5% the month before.

As a result GBP suffered, USD suffered, Euro remained unchanged and JPY was considered as a safe haven and closed the week with a profit 245 pips. An increase in Gold price gave a push to the AUD that closed the week with a 130 pip profit. The winner of the week was the NZD with 300 pips but is a currency that I only use for my statistic tool calculation and do not follow and do not know if there is a fundamental reason for this increase.

I received an email from Oanda, informing me that the leverage for BOTH the GBP and Euro pairs is reduced to 20:1 for the GBP pairs and 50:1 for the Euro pairs. Those reductions will take place after market close on Friday, 17th of June, and would return to normal after the market close on the 24th of June.

Let’s go now and see the individual pairs and if there are any possible setups.
GBP pairs is better to avoid them, except for the Gbp/Usd that did not over-react to the news and could be shorted but with tight stop loss and take profit.
The Eur/Usd could be shorted but we will have to wait for confirmation. The week closed without an upper wick, indicating strength for the pair. It could move another 100 pips before reversing and caution is needed before committing ourselves.
For the AUD pairs it is wise to wait for Tuesday’s Cash Rate from RBA before taking any action.
For the JPY pairs, I think the JPY strength is temporary and we will see the pairs moving higher again, (ie JPY weakness) particularly the Usd/Jpy that I expect to soon move higher. Just like the Eur/Usd an absence of a lower wick indicates weakness for the pair and it could continue and test support at 105,50 before bouncing.
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