We had thought the USD would have a last hurrah against DM. However, this is looking increasingly unlikely. Even with the market starting to think the ECB will deliver another round of QE the EUR is still trading above 1.10. We believe once the market comes to terms with the lower and shorter cycle in the US coupled with the constraints on the ECB, EUR-USD will head upwards. Hence we are now looking for EUR-USD to hit 1.20 by end 2016
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