| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 2100 | As expected, the S+P headed back to finish the week right on the recent 2100 pivot, with equities generally coming under some pressure because of the lack of progress in the EU/Greek talks. Today’s emergency meeting of EU leaders will be the main focus, and we could see a sharp selloff if a default actually looms on the horizon, which currently seems the direction we are heading in although the daily charts are flat and not hinting of any major move, so we could see a continuation of the recent range trade conditions. On the downside, which the 4 hour charts suggest we should be looking at today, back below 2100 will again see buyers at 2085 (100 DMA) and at the recent 2070 lows. Technically, under here looks doubtful for now, although a Greek default could quickly change that theory, but further losses would then head towards 2057 (23.6% of 1813/2133) and then to 2044 (200 DMA), 2035 (61.8% of 1974/2133) and even to 2000. Rallies will find resistance at last week’s 2118 high, above which would see another run towards the 2133 all time high. In the bigger picture, further gains would open up the way for a run towards the 2165/70 target, where the trend line joining the previous highs will provide some resistance, and further out, the longer term upside target would appear to be the 161.8% projection of 666 (Mar ’09) to 1372 (May ’11) from 1073 (Oct ’11) at 2206. |
| DJI | 17926 | Ditto S+P. The DJI headed south on Friday and is now back at 17925 after having traded a 18073/17905 range. More choppy trade looks to be in store, with direction to be guided by Greek headlines although technically there is little change, as the choppy price action continues. The downside will again find support at 17850/17900, below which would then head back towards the double bottom at 17690 (9 June low) and below here would open the way to revisit the 200 DMA at 17615. The topside will again see sellers at 18000 and then at 18100, which will act as strong resistance. A break of this area would take the DJI back towards 18160 and possibly towards 18200, but which again looks unlikely to be seen for a while to come. |
| ASX SPI | 5537 | As expected, the SPI had a better session on Friday in rising from 5505 to a high of 5559, pulling up just short of the 5565 resistance (200 DMA) before reversing a little as global equities headed lower, to finish at 5540. The points to watch remain unchanged, and 5565 will again be the initial hurdle, which will not be easily broken but above which would allow a run towards last Thursday’s high at 5583 and possibly beyond, towards 5600, albeit not today. The downside will find minor support at the 100/200 HMAs at 5525/5515, below which would see another run back towards 5500, although the daily charts suggest that much below here is doubtful in coming session. If wrong, further losses will head towards 5480, to Thursdays spike low at 5437 and then to the 9 June low at 5424. This area will be strong support (200 WMA: 5430), but while the dailies are currently supportive the weekly charts point lower, so I think this is the overall direction that we should be concentrating on, so selling into near term strength towards 5600, looking for a run towards the longer term targets at 5213 (Jan 2015 low) and then at 5135 (38.2% of 3721/6010). |
| GOLD | 1202 | Gold had a tight 1198/1204 range on Friday, again capped from further gains by the 200 DMA (1208). The daily term charts look mildly positive and a break of the current resistance would then see a run beyond 1210, possibly towards 1225 and then towards the 18 May high at 1232. If the dollar recovers, which may occur if the Euro is sold off on the back of a negative outcome from Greece today, then Gold may head lower once again, in which case, the supports to watch will be at the 1184 session low, a break of which would then head back towards 1170 and to the 5 June 1162 low. Further out, points to watch would be at 1150, 1142 (17 March low) and eventually to 1131 (7 Nov low). On the other hand, if Greece really does start to blow-up Gold may benefit from the rush to safety, possibly sending it sharply higher, and it could be that a bull flag is developing on the shorter term charts, which looks to have a target of around 1235. All too hard right now, and with the Greek talk that lie ahead it seems very prudent so stand aside. Alternatively, buying a break of 1210 may be a plan, but with a tight downside stop in place. |
| SILVER | 16.19 | Silver had a choppy 15.90/16.22 session on Friday and more of the same, close to 16.00 looks likely. Below 16.00 would then head back to 15.85/90, the double bottom at 15.80 (11 June/30 Apr lows), the 24 April low at 15.60 and eventually to the 11 March low at 15.29. The topside will find sellers at 16.30 and then again at 16.45 (100 DMA). Above here would return to the 200 DMA at 16.65 and eventually to 17.00, although this seems unlikely for a while. Sidelined. |
| OIL(WTI) | 59.73 | WTI fell back below 60.00 on Friday, after a bearish outlook from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister. Technically there is little change and it seems that 60.00 will again act as a pivot, so continue to use the 58/61 range as a guide. In the bigger picture, below 58.00 could see a run towards the 5 June 56.82 low, while a break of 61.00 would see a squeeze towards 62.55, which is where the 200 DMA currently lies and will provide strong resistance, if seen. The weeklies and monthlies both look reasonably positive, but it is hard to see WTI much above the 62.00/50 area in the near term. |
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