Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts Daily

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2103 The S+P made a new all time high at 2119.25 today before giving up the gains after some weak corporate earnings from the health sector. Now back at 2104, there is not a whole lot of change from the medium term perspective although the 4 hour charts now point a little lower, for a potential test of 2100 and lower, where 2080/90 will see good bids ahead of rising trend support currently at 2062. The topside needs to regain today’s peak, above which, an acceleration towards rising trend resistance at around 2140 should not be ruled out. A dovish Fed would help it on its way- Wednesday.
DJI 17990 A choppy 17946/18108 range has seen the DJI close back below 18000, with little overall change in the technical outlook, although as with the S+P, the 4 hour charts do suggest we may now take another look lower, at 17850/17900. Back above 18000 will again find resistance at around 18075/90 and then at 18120, but beyond which, the all time high of 18265 would come into view. Overall,  more choppy trade looks likely in the next couple of days, most likely within the recent 18120/17770 (100 DMA) range, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting.
ASX SPI 5977 The resurgent Iron Ore price (US$58.70) bought about strong gains in the SPI yesterday, led by the miners (Fortescue rallied by 16.3%, now up over 40% in the past four sessions). Technically, the Index reached 6008 where it ran into the very strong resistance, this being 76.4% of the entire fall from 6880 (Dec 2007) to 3102 (Mar 2009), but above which would see the SPI head back towards 6102, where the market stalled before gapping lower at the beginning of 2008. The 4 hour charts are overbought and look to be rolling over following the late dip to 5980 where the SPI has closed the US session. The downside will find support at 5950 and 5935 today, below which would then head back to 5900. Some choppy directionless trade would not now surprise while the market treads water ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC (Thursday morning -Asia) meeting. A dovish Fed would send global equities higher, ahead of next week’s RBA meeting, where a rate cut, would send the SPI higher again.
GOLD 1201 Precious metals had a good session, assisted by the weak US$ and stronger base metal prices, allowing Gold to rally sharply to reach 1207, before closing at 1200. We are now back to where we were last week and those same technical points remain pretty much intact.  Above the nearby 1205/07 resistance would allow a stronger test of the 100 DMA (1211), a break of which would allow a run to the recent 1224 high and then to the 200 DMA at 1230. Right now this seems unlikely, although a dovish Fed on Wednesday could change that theory very quickly.  Back to the downside, support would arrive at 1180/85 and then at Friday’s low at 1175 (1174: 61.8% of 1142/1224).
SILVER 16.37 Silver rallied even more strongly than Gold, in reaching a high of 16.48 where the 100 FMA has so far contained further strength. The indicators are mixed, although the dailies do look more positive, so a break of 16.50 could see a run towards 16.90 and possibly to the 200 DMA at 17.30. I remain neutral, but still prefer the idea of selling into strength. If the current selloff in the dollar continues though (on the back of a dovish Fed?) then commodities have further to rally so don’t jump in too early.
OIL(WTI) 56.59 WTI was unable to join in the rally seen elsewhere in the commodity bloc and actually fell slightly due to the escalation of fighting in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and the Shiite-Houthi rebels. The US close is just above the 56.50 low and further downside looks possible in the short term. A break of 56.50 support (daily Tenkan) would open up the chance of a move towards 55.00 and then to the important 54.15 pivot level. Below this would see WTI head back towards the larger degree of rising trend support currently at 52.85 and the Fibo support at 52.20 (38.2% of 42.02/58.60). A return to the topside looks to be delayed as the dailies appear toppish; however the weeklies remain positive so I still think buying dips towards 55.00/54.15 is the plan, with a stop placed at around 53.70 but looking for another bounce, eventually towards 58.00 and the 2015 high, set this week at 58.60, above which would test the 18 Dec high at 59.00, ahead of a stronger run towards 60.00.

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