Indices/Commodities outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2008 In the absence of any US market today, there is nothing to add to the weekend outlook and the 200 DMA/100 HMA at 2003 may act as a pivot again today. Technically, as before, the daily and weekly charts still point lower and a break of 2000 would then allow a return to 1985 and possibly towards the strong support in the 1960/70 area, below which 1950 (50% pivot of 1812/2088) and then 1918 (61.8% of 1812/2088) would eventually attract. The topside will see sellers at the 200 HMA at 2016 and again at the brief spike high seen yesterday at 2023, a break of which could see a return to descending trend/ minor Fibo resistance at around 2040. The game plan of selling into strength, with a tight SL placed above 2040 seems to be the way to go. Above 2045 could see a test of 2060(76.4%  of 1812/2088), although at this stage I am not sure that we are heading this high.
DJI 17386 In very thin Asian conditions, the Dow saw a brief spike to our sell area, reaching 17521 before turning lower in choppy conditions, to see a session low of 17343. The charts are mixed, but given that the dailies still point lower, the same process of selling into strength looks to be the plan. Use 17500 as a topside guide, with a SL placed above 17600, but looking for a run towards the 100 DMA at 17265 and eventually to Friday’s lows at 17123 and beyond, towards the 200 DMA at 19675
ASX SPI 5257 After reaching 5327 early in the day, the SPI has headed lower, partly pressured by the steep Chinese sell-off and is back in the middle of its recent range, sitting on the 200 Week MA. A break of this would head back towards Friday’s 5213 low, and if the US equities do head lower, as we eventually expect – and they take the SPI with it, –  then eventually I suspect we are in for a test of 5200 and lower, towards 5100. The topside today looks covered ahead of 5300, and as before I would be a seller into strength if we do head up here, with a SL placed above 5330.
GOLD 1277 No change in view after a sideways session and with the dailies still looking positive, we could head on to 1294 (76.4% of 1345/1131) and then to 1300. A break of this would trigger stops and push higher towards the 8 August high at 1322. The US$ is currently rather mixed against the other majors, but if the general uptrend does resume, then Gold could well run out of steam, so downside stops on long positions need to be kept tight.  Back below 1255 now would signal warnings and could see a run towards 1235 and possibly 1215. This looks unlikely for the time being and I would still rather trade from the long side. The 4 hour charts are overbought though, so leave room for a dip towards 1260, with a tight stop placed under 1250.
SILVER 17.68 Ditto Gold. Silver having caught up with the move in Gold, today reached a spike high at 18.00 in early Asia before backing off to trade a largely sideways session at around Friday’s close. As with Gold, further gains look possible over then next few days given the positive momentum seen in the daily charts, and another run towards 18.00 would not surprise, with the major target then being seen at the 200 DMA at 18.40. Buying dips again remains the theme, with 17.25 (minor) and then the rising trend line, currently at 17.00, providing the support levels. As with Gold, be alert to the chance of general dollar strength, which would put headwinds in the way of further upside progress.
OIL(WTI) 47.86 WTI had a choppy session, generally drifting lower from the early 49.21 high, but so far holding on above the 100/200 HMA support (47.35/46.60). The generally choppy trade looks set to continue over the next day or two, but with a mildly positive bias while the dailies point higher in unwinding their oversold condition, and overall, there is no real change in the outlook. As before, an ongoing, wide range of 45.00/50.00 would not surprise, and in the middle I would tend to leave it alone although buying dips currently remains the mildly preferred bias. A break of 50.00 could see another run towards last week’s 51.25 high, although as we said previously, anywhere in the 51/52 area would appear to be a sell in preparation for another look at the downside.

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