Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2084 Relief at a Russian/Ukraine ceasefire and some soft US data, hinting at a delay in any impending rate rise, has helped the S+P head higher today, to within a hair’s breadth of the all time high of 2088. With the dailies still pointing higher, a run at 2100 would now seem not so far away. Support now seen in the 2060/70 area, but with little data to drive the market today, we may consolidate in order to draw breath before a more sustained attempt to get to new highs.
DJI 17930 Ditto S+P. Given the positive look of the indicators, today’s peak of 17943 appears set to be overcome, for a run towards 18000 and then to the all time high of 18048 – and beyond. Support now seen at 17850 and then again at around 11760 (100 HMA).
ASX SPI 5748 After an early fall to the support at 5680, seen after the employment numbers, the SPI spent the day  recovering, helped by firmer European/US markets, and looks set to continue higher, at least in the short term, although direction today will be dependent on the outcome of what Glenn Stevens has to say at the House of Reps. The chance of a March rate cut will underpin the SPI, which could head towards 5780 or possibly even to 5800, although possibly not yet. The dailies though look less positive and a failure ahead of 5800 could see the SPI head back to the 5700/5680 area, below which could see a decline towards the Fibo support at 5620 (23.6% of 5103/5799), although that is for another day.
GOLD 1222 Little to report today after a similar range (1216/1233), propped up by the 100 DMA (1216). While the dailies point lower I prefer to sell rallies, where the topside will find sellers at 1233 and then again at 1240 although this seems unlikely to be visited today. Selling rallies, with a SL above 1255 seems to be the plan, although we need a break of 1215 in order to gain confidence of further losses, where support will arrive at 1190/1200.
SILVER 16.87 After a dip to 16.60, Silver had a quick spike up to the resistance, where the 200 HMA at 17.15 capped any further gains. Since then a choppy session, with a downward bias, has ensued and we are back where we started an it looks like more of the same today, and I suspect that 16.60/17.10 may again cover it. The daily indicators remain negative, and as we have been saying recently, below 16.50/60, a fall to 16.00 would not surprise. The topside is going to run into headwinds once more at 17.15 (200 HMA), above which, 17.35/40 will prove a hurdle. If this area is overcome then look for a run towards 17.75, although I don’t really see it happening and prefer to sell into strength.
OIL(WTI) 51.33 Today saw WTI head steadily higher, to close just below the high of 51.57. I remain neutral on Oil although the idea of buying dips and trading from the long side is mildly preferred. Above today’s session high, 52.00 and Wednesday’s  session high at 52.60 would come into view, a break of which would take WTI towards Monday’s 53.95 high, last Tuesday’s top at 54.21 and then towards  55.08 (2 Jan high). The downside will again see bids at 50.00 and then at the session low at 49.12. I don’t really see it down here, particularly if the Russian/Ukraine ceasefire holds, but if that doesn’t happen, then we could get another run towards 48.00 and the 5 Feb low at 47.35 .

 

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