Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2060 The choppy trade continues, with the S+P reversing yesterday’s fall to finish at the top end of the recent range. We could be in for more of the same choppy action within the 2040/65 range, although the dailies are hinting that it could be the topside that comes under some pressure. If so, the recent high at 2067 will be the first hurdle, above which could potentially revisit the all time high at 2088.50. The downside would see support at 2050/40, which should hold for now, but below which could see a run towards  200 HMA (2028) or even the 100 DMA (2010). Doubtful in the near term.
DJI 17787 Ditto S+P. The dailies are beginning to build some positive momentum, so a retest of 17850 and 18000 should not be ruled out. Support now seen at 17700 (100 HMA) and then at 17600, but looks unlikely to be seen today.
ASX SPI 5776 The SPI had another sideways session but remains above the rising trend support, currently at 5745, and we could be in for a similar session today as we await tomorrow’s Australian Jobs data (Consumer Confidence/Home Loans today). A downside break of the support would see stops being triggered for a move back towards 5700 and possibly 5680.. The topside will again find sellers at 5780 and then at the 5798 trend high, above which would head towards the Fibo resistance of the major move down from 6880 (Dec 2007 high) to 3102 (March 2009 low) at 5975, although that looks some way away.
GOLD 1235 Gold chopped around today in a 1230/45 range, with the dailies looking heavy, for potential fall towards 1215 (100 DMA) and maybe to 1200, although this seems unlikely to be seen today. The topside currently looks capped at the 200 DMA at 1252.
SILVER 16.95 Ditto Gold. A choppy day going nowhere, so a neutral stance is required. As with yesterday, the topside is going to run into headwinds at 17.10/15 (100/200 HMA’s), above which, 17.35/40 will prove a hurdle. If this area is overcome then look for a run towards 17.75, although I don’t really see it happening and prefer to sell into strength. If we see  turn lower, as suggested by the dailies, look for a return to 16.55 and possibly to 16.00, although this appears to be some way off yet
OIL(WTI) 50.01 WTI had a sharp turn lower from the session high of 52.62 today, falling to 49.84 where the 200 HMA propped it up, before finishing back above 50.00. More volatility looks to lie ahead, with topside points to watch being at 51.15 (100 HMA) and then at 52.00 and the session high at 52.60. Above there would take WTI towards Monday’s 53.95 high and then to last Tuesday’s top at 54.21, above which would look to test 55.08 (2 Jan high).  Below 49.80 would head to 49.00 and possibly to the 5 Feb low at 47.35 although this appears to be somewhat distant at present.


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