JPM : The big picture remains blurry

Looking across the board it remains difficult to make any conclusion which would survive the next week, as markets themselves are inconclusive in their trading action. The absolute lack of any decisive break is just one of the symptoms, which illustrates the general stage of confusion. That said, it remains a day to day business until we receive stronger hints that a sustainable trend has been established. The role model in this context is once more EUR/USD, which defended key-support at 1.1031 (minor 76.4 %) yesterday just to keep us in no man’s land between the latter and the upper resistance barrier at 1.1293/1.1322 (pivot/minor 76.4 %). Only a decisive breakout of this range on hourly close (using a 20 pip filter) would provide directions in favour of a broader recovery to 1.1699/1.1811 (int. 38.2 % on higher scales) or of a deeper setback to at least 1.0744/1.0695 (int. 76.4 % on higher scale/daily trend). EUR/JPY remains also perfectly stuck in mid range between 137.98/138.11 (pivots) and 134.79/36 (minor 76.4 %/hourly trend). A breakout would either support a stronger recovery to 144.19 (int. 76.4 %) or a deeper setback to at least 133.57/09 (int. 50 %/pivot), if not to 129.62 (int. 76.4 %). EUR/GBP is no exception as it needs a breakout of the range between key- Fib.-support at 0.7029 (minor 76.4 %) and the last intra-day high at 0.7168 to provide fresh directions. In order to extend the long-term downtrend towards internal wave 3 projections at 0.6906 and at 0.6695/64 it would in every which case take a decisive hourly close below 0.7029 (i.e. below 0.7010). Cable remains vulnerable to a deeper setback to 1.5512 (daily trend) and 1.5350 (minor 76.4 %) as long as the hourly lagging line has not broken the upper boundary of the Ichimoku-cloud (currently at 1.5731). We opened a new shortposition in GBP/SEK yesterday in anticipation of a broader 4th wave setback, but run a fairly tight stop in case the 2009 high at 13.230 would be taken out. 

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