Kiwi: holding above 0.735 for now by Mary McNamara

The Kiwi is holding above major 0.735 support for now but much will probably depend on whether the USD respects or breaks 95.50 resistance.

I’m in Kiwi-land at the moment and found it kind of appropriate to update about this pair. The boys have headed off to golf and so I grabbed a few minutes to post this update.

Kiwi monthly: the 0.735 is major monthly support but, whilst there has been a bearish close below this ‘neck line’ region of a potential monthly ‘Double Top’, there is yet to be any sign of a hold below this S/R region:

KiwiMonthly

USDX weekly: much may end up depending on which way the USD index heads from this point on. The USD is facing resistance from a potential ‘Double Top’ of its own and 95.50 is the key level to watch. A close and hold above 95.50 here would be bearish for the Kiwi but any reversal from this point may help the Kiwi carve out a base:

USDXweekly

Kiwi 4hr: the hold above 0.735 can be seen here on the 4hr chart as can a kind of wonky bullish ‘inverse H&S’. I have been sampling the wonderful Pinots of the region but this pattern was formulated in the clear light of day! The ‘neck line’ is actually sloping the wrong way for a bullish pattern BUT the resistance is worth noting. Interestingly, the height of this H&S is about 300 pips and any breakout move would then be expected to take price up by about 300 pips. Such a move would put the Kiwi back at 0.77 resistance which is another key S/R level:

Kiwi4

Kiwi 4hr Cloud: the Kiwi has broken back above the 4hr Cloud and, whilst this in itself isn’t too unusual, the current break is up through descending and thick Cloud implying a significant effort against reasonable resistance.

Kiwi4hrCloud

Summary: Keep an eye on the 95.50 level on the USDX and on the Kiwi’s 0.735 level and ‘neck line’ of the ‘inverse H&S’ for clues about the next major move with the Kiwi.

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