The Kiwi is holding above major 0.735 support for now but much will probably depend on whether the USD respects or breaks 95.50 resistance.
I’m in Kiwi-land at the moment and found it kind of appropriate to update about this pair. The boys have headed off to golf and so I grabbed a few minutes to post this update.
Kiwi monthly: the 0.735 is major monthly support but, whilst there has been a bearish close below this ‘neck line’ region of a potential monthly ‘Double Top’, there is yet to be any sign of a hold below this S/R region:
USDX weekly: much may end up depending on which way the USD index heads from this point on. The USD is facing resistance from a potential ‘Double Top’ of its own and 95.50 is the key level to watch. A close and hold above 95.50 here would be bearish for the Kiwi but any reversal from this point may help the Kiwi carve out a base:
Kiwi 4hr: the hold above 0.735 can be seen here on the 4hr chart as can a kind of wonky bullish ‘inverse H&S’. I have been sampling the wonderful Pinots of the region but this pattern was formulated in the clear light of day! The ‘neck line’ is actually sloping the wrong way for a bullish pattern BUT the resistance is worth noting. Interestingly, the height of this H&S is about 300 pips and any breakout move would then be expected to take price up by about 300 pips. Such a move would put the Kiwi back at 0.77 resistance which is another key S/R level:
Kiwi 4hr Cloud: the Kiwi has broken back above the 4hr Cloud and, whilst this in itself isn’t too unusual, the current break is up through descending and thick Cloud implying a significant effort against reasonable resistance.
Summary: Keep an eye on the 95.50 level on the USDX and on the Kiwi’s 0.735 level and ‘neck line’ of the ‘inverse H&S’ for clues about the next major move with the Kiwi.