From the FXWW Chatroom: USDJPY failed to stay below 106.27 where is the daily conversion line, and generally speaking USDJPY and CROSS JPY are staying heavy on top side. Japanese customers tend to buy USDJPY after the dip, but stocks are staying heavy and there is no motivation to buy new risks. I expect range trading between 105.20/107.30. USDJPY will most likely trade heavy for another a few days, but the slow market may call for short covering. Key levels of USDJPY are 105.80 105.20 104.45 and 106.80 107.55 108.00.
EUR
EUR(1.2368) Rangebound consolidative price action continues to frustrate bulls. For now maintain a “participation” long as Merkel is back in however we still await the newsflow from Italy.
EUR(1.2368) Rangebound consolidative price action continues to frustrate bulls. For now maintain a “participation” long as Merkel is back in however we still await the newsflow from Italy.
GBP
GBPUSD supported 1.3920/30 area where is the previous resistance line since 16th/February. EURGBP is staying firm but failed to keep down side key level 0.8845/50. It is a bit early to judge GBPUSD shift upside momentum before breaking 1.4035 resistance lines. No significant data from U.K and Brexit talk (although tension between Russia is increasing). GBPUSD will stay bid as long as GBPUSD stays higher than 1.3920 and EURUSD stays higher than 1.2335/40. Key levels of GBPUSD are 1.3920 1.3875 and 1.4000 1.4035. EURGBP 0.8820 0.8910.
GBPUSD supported 1.3920/30 area where is the previous resistance line since 16th/February. EURGBP is staying firm but failed to keep down side key level 0.8845/50. It is a bit early to judge GBPUSD shift upside momentum before breaking 1.4035 resistance lines. No significant data from U.K and Brexit talk (although tension between Russia is increasing). GBPUSD will stay bid as long as GBPUSD stays higher than 1.3920 and EURUSD stays higher than 1.2335/40. Key levels of GBPUSD are 1.3920 1.3875 and 1.4000 1.4035. EURGBP 0.8820 0.8910.
AUD
The pop to 0.7916 last night should serve to release some pressure with short term stops cleared out through recent highs. Iron Ore had a good day yesterday post the Chinese data but the trend is lower particularly if tariffs eventuate. Still happy to hold the basket short, favouring DM over EM and shorting those economies saddled with debt. No data today should be rather dull 0.7860/10 best guess.
The pop to 0.7916 last night should serve to release some pressure with short term stops cleared out through recent highs. Iron Ore had a good day yesterday post the Chinese data but the trend is lower particularly if tariffs eventuate. Still happy to hold the basket short, favouring DM over EM and shorting those economies saddled with debt. No data today should be rather dull 0.7860/10 best guess.
NZD
GDP missed significantly but NZD has only fallen 15 pips further illustrating the diminishing relevance of local data in this politicalized environment. Idiosyncratic stories will ultimately reassert themselves and with NZ heavily exposed to higher funding costs I prefer to hold shorts against a basket of DM. Sell here at market, it should struggle to get back to yesterday’s highs around 0.7350 though the real pivot is through 0.7400.
GDP missed significantly but NZD has only fallen 15 pips further illustrating the diminishing relevance of local data in this politicalized environment. Idiosyncratic stories will ultimately reassert themselves and with NZ heavily exposed to higher funding costs I prefer to hold shorts against a basket of DM. Sell here at market, it should struggle to get back to yesterday’s highs around 0.7350 though the real pivot is through 0.7400.
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