Market Views

From the FXWW Chatroom: CIBC: Early bird catches the worm; speculators positioned for weak Nikkei sold UsdJpy from 109.98 to 109.855. But Goto-bi Day and UsdJpy returned to challenge the offers above 110.00. 50-Day SMA comes in at 110.08; we should see better selling towards 110.50.

The early birds were also sellers of AudNzd, which ended New York near 1.0720. The cross slipped to 1.0685 and there are reports of good demand at 1.0650-55. NzdUsd climbed from 0.6740 to 0.6770. Meanwhile, profit taking in AudUsd faced with AudNzd selling.

Fresh EurUsd offers are reported at 1.1225 but weak stops found at 1.1230. If we do see market targeting stop buy orders there should be some offers coming in ahead of 1.1250. On the day, downside support in the 1.1180’s and big level to watch for is 1.1101. Greek parliament is currently debating draft legislation and to pass the contingency reform package. Once done, this goes to the EU finance ministers meet on Tuesday. FT said after months of resistance, German Finance Minister is now open to debt relief. Am not sure if member states like Finland, Austria will agree to that.

With Aud and Nzd tad firmer, UsdCad drifted lower. Flows have been light and heard corporate buying at 1.3140-50 and profit taking near 1.3110-15. First resistance at 1.3150. Our strategist Bipan said this is in-line with prior closes in early April and price action may need additional impetus for now before extending higher. Our guys are long and targets 1.36-1.37 in coming months. Later today, we will have the Canadian retail sales as well as inflation numbers.

UsdKrw is bid today. Onshore was trading at 1185.9 before CNY fix and traded up to 1190. I was told there was some bond outflow from real money accounts and with scarce on the offers. Onshore selling near 1193-95, if that level breaks, we could see stop buy orders go through up to 1200.

The move in UsdKrw seemed to pull some currencies higher as well. Onshore UsdMyr back to high side of today’s range.

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