The US$ index has printed four consecutive Doji daily candles reflecting hesitation with the next directional move. The two FX indices are mired within their weekly Ichimoku Cloud and look like they’re attempting a polarity shift but how successful this might be remains to be seen. The broad based S&P500 has bounced down from trend line resistance ahead of the next earnings season with some profit taking and the Yen¥ has gained on much of this uncertainty. All making for interesting watching if nothing else!
USDX daily: four consecutive indecision Doji candles:
USDX weekly Cloud: will this drop through this support?
EURX weekly Cloud: the 101 level seems rather important here as long term S/R and aligns with the top of the current Cloud:
S&P500 weekly: a pull back from the top of this trading channel/Flag isn’t surprising, BUT, where to from here?
Oil 4hr: not as deep a pull back here as I was thinking we might get:
TC Signals: I’ve had two TC signals and both have delivered a decent haul of pips:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this came right at the end of last week and the signal has given up to 390 pips. I had warned on the w/e to watch out for any support from the 156.50 region and we are seeing some slow down here. Note how price is right at the monthly chart’s 50% fib and note also how the Elliott Wave indicator on my charts suggests a bounce from here:
G/J monthly: price is right at the 50% fib. Maybe the BoJ will dictate which way we head from here?
AUD/JPY 4hr: this signal ended up continuing on after the RBA and has delivered up to 220 pips. I’m still thinking a test of the key 80 level could be in store, even if we are to get bullish continuation in the longer term:
A/J monthly: note how important the 80 level is for the A/J:
Other FX: Today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will most likley impact on US$ sentiment and so it might be best to wait until after that for any US$ directional trading.
Gold: this might be one to watch with today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes as any US$ weakness might help trigger a trend line and Flag breakout here:
Gold daily: watch the Flag trend lines for any bullish or bearish breakout:
EUR/JPY: keep a watch on the 126 level. Any move back above this level would have to be read as bullish:
AUD/USD 4hr: a recent support trend line has broken here but I don’t have any new TC signal which is often the case on this pair. Placing Fibs back to the January low shows the 61.8% fib near the 0.72 region which is a huge level for this pair. The 0.72 happens to also be near the monthly chart’s 61.8% fib:
USD/JPY: the 100/101.5 level looks inviting here however I’m sure the BoJ wouldn’t stand for such Yen strength. It would tick a lot of technical boxes though
U/J 4hr: the recent 115 -111 trading range has been broken:
U/J weekly: a pull back to the 101.5 area would still only be a 50% fib retracement of this huge swing high move:
U/J monthly: a move to the 100 area would help form a Handle for the Cup ‘n’ Handle and also an Inverse H&S:
NZD/USD 4hr: trends don’t travel in straight lines and this may be the case here. The NZD/USD has been on a roll lately and so a pull back wasn’t out of order. I’d thought we might see the 61.8% fib tested but, so far, we’ve only seen the 50% fib tested. This may be all we get though:
Kiwi monthly: any move back above the Flag trend line would have to be read as bullish:
EUR/NZD: this is struggling back at the major 1.675 S/R level:
GBP/NZD: I’d suggested watching for any test of the major 2.10 level here and we got this yesterday to the T and price has subsequently fallen away by over 200 pips. Traders now need to watch for any support from the 2.065 level again:
EUR/AUD: this might test the key 1.55 level again as this is near the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move:
EUR/GBP weekly: I’d said on the w/e I was looking for a test of 0.82 here and this move may have started: