NFP vs Yellen 1-1 (April 2nd)

We had an interesting week starting on Easter Monday. The bank majority were on holidays and the Gbp/Usd (among other pairs) found the strength to move 130 pips higher. Mrs Yellen took the relay on Tuesday with dovish USD comments, pushing the Gbp/Usd another 130 pips higher. Then came the ADP that stopped the frenzy and finally Friday’s NFP pushed the pair 140 pips lower to finally close 95 pips higher than Monday’s open. Certainly there are traders that wanted to close their profitable short positions before the end of the month and Mrs Yellen offered a helping hand.Another interesting situation took place on Friday with Usd/Jpy and Usd/Cad. After the initial, positive USD NFP statement, the pairs moved higher and then took back all profits and finally closed the week with a loss. A mirror situation took place with the Eur/Usd.
The resume is that even if the numbers are USD positive Mrs Yellen has enough strength to push the market in the opposite direction. I remain USD positive and I believe that Mr Market will finally do what he wants to do.

As far as I am concerned I closed the month with a small 0,44% profit from a single trade. Unfortunately I have open positions that are under water and I do not want to commit additional capital in trades. I called correctly the longs on Usd/Jpy, Aud/Usd and short on Gbp/Aud but did not take the trades. I hope Gbp/Usd will decline and Usd/Jpy will go higher in order to close my trades with a profit and free my capital for new trades. As you can see from my Myfxbook link, my equity is at -5,58%. When trading from daily charts you should be prepared to keep your trades open for longer time periods.

For this week I see nice setups. Usd/Jpy for a long and Gbp/Aud for a short. Generally speaking all GBP pairs are candidates for shorts but the Gbp/Aud is my favorite since it combines GBP weakness with AUD strength. For the Usd/Jpy I suspect some manipulation on Friday that will unlock buying strength as soon as the market is open. For the other pairs you can see my thoughts in the attached video or read my blog comments.
Events with interest are the RBA interest rate and statement on Tuesday, FOMC statement on Wednesday, and finally on Thursday Mr Draghi and Mrs Yellen holding speeches.

As you probably know, I live in a beautiful Greek island named Kos and if interested you can see a video with areal views HERE. Should you decide to visit do not hesitate to contact me. I will be more than happy to meet you and show you around.

 

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