This write up covers just a few pairs as I am still catching up from a weekend away. There were no new TC signals last week and three, from the week before, have now closed off: GBP/AUD for 240 pips, GBP/USD for just 80 pips and the EUR/AUD for 140 pips.
NZD/USD: The Kiwi closed higher for the week despite the RBNZ rate cut given some corners of the market had been looking for an even bigger rate cut than the one delivered. Price tested the 0.73 level during last week but closed below this key region; one best seen on the monthly chart.
Price remains above a 3 week support trend line forming up a triangle under this 0.73 S/R region and, with little evident momentum, this gives us trend lines to watch for any breakout that might evolve with an uptick in the ADX.
Price action is above the 4hr, daily and weekly Ichimoku Cloud which is bullish.
The weekly candle closed as bullish.
There is NZD Employment, GDT Price Index and PPI data to watch out for this week as well as all of the US related data.
- I’m watching for any new TC signal, the 0.73 level and the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines.
AUD/USD: this pair retreated at the end of last week from the 3 1/2 year Bear trend line. I have placed Fibonacci retracement on the the daily chart to capture the last swing high move and I’ll be on the lookout for any pullback to test they key Fib levels here; the 50%, 61.8% and 78.6%. I do note that the 61.8% fib is near the S/R level of 074 and also near a recent support trend line so there is a bit of confluence around that level.
Any bullish triangle breakout would have me looking at key S/R levels and Fibs on the weekly chart on the way up to the 61.8% fib near 0.95.
Price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud and the weekly candle was small but bullish coloured.
There is AUD Employment data to watch out for this week as well as all of the US related data.
- I’m watching for any new TC signals, the 0.74 level and daily chart’s Fib levels and triangle trend lines.
EUR/USD: Price action chopped up towards the 1.12 S/R level again last week and a recent support trend line is helping to shape a 4hr chart triangle pattern. This is giving us trend lines to watch for any breakout and, with current momentum below the 20 level, any uptick in the ADX will help to guide trading a breakout move.
Price continues to struggle near the key 1.12 level as this is the monthly chart’s 61.8% fib of the 2000-2007 swing high move and the chart below shows how we are up to the 20th monthly candle chopping around near this key 1.12 level:
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but IN the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bullish.
There is German ZEW Economic Sentiment data to watch out for this week as well as all of the US related data.
- I’m watching for any new TC signal, the 1.12 level and the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines.
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD closed below the key 1.30 level again last week but, whilst this is bearish, I’m seeing little momentum on the 4hr chart so far this week.
The monthly and weekly chart’s reveal how price has now pulled back and tested the 78.6% fib of the 1985-2007 swing high move which is near 1.28 (rounded from 1.2789). I think this is the lower level to watch this week as any bounce from here would help to shape a potential ‘Double Bottom’. However, any close and hold below 1.28 would then have me looking down towards the whole-number 1.20 level and, then, the 100% fib near 1.05.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud which is bearish.
The weekly candle was bearish too.
There is GBP CPI, Employment data nd Retail Sales to watch for this week as well as the USD related data.
- I’m watching for any new TC signal and the 1.30 and 1.28 level.
USD/JPY: price chopped up and down around the key 100 – 101.50 region last week and this has helped to shape up a 4hr chart triangle pattern. There is little momentum at the moment so watch fro any trend line breakout that evolves with an uptick in the ADX.
The 100-101.50 region is an important one as it is the weekly chart’s 50% fib of the recent swing low move, and, any hold above this region would help to shape a bullish-reversal H&S pattern.
Price action is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bearish.
- I’m watching for any new TC signal, the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines and the 100/101.50 region.