NZD/USD: catching my eye into the New Year

I am still away for a few more days but I just had a quick look over my charts and the NZD/USD has caught my eye. The NZD/USD is butting up against a significant 18-month duration bear trend line and this is helping to form up a triangle, of sorts, on the monthly time frame. This bear trend line will be worth watching as the New Year unfolds. Which reminds me, it is still early on Dec 31st here in Maui but Happy New Year to all.

Kiwi monthly: the monthly candle closed as a large bullish, essentially, engulfing candle and just under this major bear trend line. I’ve posted monthly charts from both of my charting platforms:

KiwiMonthly

KiwiMonthly

Kiwi monthly Cloud: price action is below the monthly, and also weekly, Cloud BUT note how the 50% fib of the swing high move from the 2000 low to the 2014 high has offered decent support:

kiwimonthlycloud

Kiwi weekly: The weekly candle was large and bullish. Any bounce back down from this 18-month resistance trend line though would help to develop the ‘Bear Flag’ option that is still brewing:

KiwiWeekly

Kiwi daily: I’m still watching for either a bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ or Bear Flag here:

KiwiDaily

Kiwi 4hr: there is a clear upward trading channel also evident within the larger triangle. Watch for any break or respect of this resistance bear trend line:

Kiwi4

USDX weekly: The US$ has not managed to close the year above the key 100 level. This could work in favour of the NZD/USD: 

USDXweekly

Summary: keep an eye on NZD/USD price action at the resistance bear trend line for any breakout or respect:

  • A bullish breakout above this 18 month down trend could lead to a ‘point of inflection’ type of move marking a new directional trend for the pair.
  • However, respect of this trend line could help to develop further bearish action and the Bear Flag move.

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