After an early low of 0.7407, the Kiwi squeezed steadily higher, reaching a peak in NY of 0.7478 after the below forecast US durable goods data. Since then the Kiwi has consolidated at slightly lower levels and will take its direction today from the Australian CPI, but really waiting for tomorrows Fed decision, which will be very closely followed by the RBNZ policy announcement.Following the recent, surprise BOC rate cut, many analysts now expect the RBNZ to temper their rate stance on Thursday morning, which comes an hour after the FOMC meeting. If they do strike a more dovish tone, then we are likely to see the Kiwi head back towards 0.7400 and possibly lower, towards the Nov 2011 low, at 0.7370, beyond which there is only minor support (20 Mar 2011 low: 0.7290) to hold the Kiwi up ahead of the 76.4% Fibo support and 17 Mar 2011 low seen at 0.7115.
On the topside, above today’s high of 0.7475 (100 HMA) would head towards 0.7500 where the descending trend resistance, currently at 0.0.7510 would probably cap it. If wrong, look for a stop loss run that could take the Kiwi on towards 0.7585 (38.2% of 0.7890/0.7397) and to the 200 HMA currently at 0.7610.
Meta Trader – AxiTrader NZD/USD: 4 Hour
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