I had stated in my w/e analysis that I would review the Kiwi again after the results of the NZ election and here is what I am seeing. Not a lot has changed but traders need to remember that there is Chinese Manufacturing data tomorrow and NZD Trade Balance data and USD New Home Sales data on Wednesday that might impact here and get this pair moving.
Last week the Kiwi chopped sideways under the key 0.82 level and monthly support trend line in the lead up to the NZ Parliamentary Election. Price gapped higher at market open today but that gap has now been filled:
Kiwi 4hr:
I am seeing this pair trading within a descending trading channel on the daily chart time frame but price is currently receiving some support from the weekly 200 EMA which is just below the whole number 81 level:
The weekly chart shows the 80 level support then not far below this region:
Placing fibs on the monthly chart shows that possible targets for any bearish follow through below the weekly 200 EMA might include the:
- whole number 80 level.
- 23.6% fib near 79.
- 38.2% fib near 73.5
- 50% fib near 70 and the monthly 200 EMA.
The weekly candle closed as a bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows reflecting the indecision here.
Traders need to keep an eye on the USD index here as well. This index is currently struggling at major resistance and any reversal here could support this Kiwi pair:
USDX monthly: showing resistance from the 78.6% fib and monthly trend line:
- I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair, the trading channel trend lines and the weekly 200 EMA.Â
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