Oil: taking centre stage for now

The US$ has weakened further as Oil takes centre stage with continued gains. The weaker US$ is helping to keep a range of commodities supported which, in turn, is boosting the AUD$. Oil has held above the broken 21-month bear trend line but some resistance lies ahead.

Oil daily: Is Oil up because the US$ is lower or is the US$ lower because Oil is up? Who knows! Either way, some resistance might lie ahead near $43 with the daily 200 EMA running into the region of the 61.8% fib from the recent swing low move. I’d also expect the whole-number level of $40 to offer some resistance too.


USDX weekly: There wasn’t any high impact USD economic news overnight but the US$ is still lower:


FX Index Alignment: the US$ is already trading below the Cloud on the daily and 4hr time frame suggesting SHORT US$. The EURX is currently trading IN the Cloud on the 4hr and daily time frame BUT any shift higher would tip the FX indices into a Risk-On alignment. I’ll be keeping an eye on this as such periods generally support better trend-trading conditions and more reliable 4hr chart-based TC signals:

EURX daily Cloud:


EURX 4hr Cloud:


TC Signals:

A/J 4hr: this has closed off now:


USD/CAD 4hr: choppy but still going:


Gold 4hr: still going here for now too:


NZD/USD 4hr: this has closed off too as it consolidates below a weekly wedge trend line:


Other FX: Watch today for impact from Chinese Trade Balance data and a speech from the BoE Governor.

E/U 4hr: not much happening here ahead of ECB. Note the lack of momentum.


E/J 4hr: not a lot doing here either:


A/U 4hr: holding above 0.74:


GBP/USD 4hr: consolidating near the half way mark between 1.46 and 1.40. Note the lack of momentum and the fib, trend line and 4hr 200 EMA resistance:


U/J 4hr: not much happening here for the time being:


GBP/JPY 4hr: I’m still expecting the 167 region to be tested:


Some AUD$ perspective charts to keep in mind:

EUR/AUD weekly:  note the weekly triangle and watch for any break down through the lower trend line:


AUD/NZD monthly: note the bullish-reversal H&S still developing here:


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