Ranging markets ahead of FOMC by Mary McNamara

Markets have been fairly range bound to start the week and I suspect that this might may remain the case until after Wednesday’s FOMC announcement.

 USD index: this continues to hover below major resistance from the monthly chart’s bear trend line but FOMC news might get this moving one way or the other. Some recent soft US data makes me suspect that rates might not increase as early as first thought:

USDXdaily

S&P500: closed slightly lower but the DJIA and NADAQ both closed a bit higher. This isn’t surprising after the big week for them all last week:

S&P30min

S&P500 daily Cloud: the index is still within the daily Cloud for now and any failure to navigate up through this resistance will have me back looking for a possible test of the 1,577 area. I’m not sure what to expect if there is a delayed rate hike message out of FOMC. I’d expect the USD index to fall but whether stocks rally on that advantage or fall on the implied negative sentiment remains to be seen. 

S&PdailyCloud

Gold: has drifted a bit lower despite the weaker USD. Note how the 38.2% fib of the recent move helped to support price for a while:

Gold4hr

Silver: is holding up better than Gold and is still above $17 support:

Silver4hr

FX: Not much has happened overnight given the range bound USD. The few TC signals that were not valid have done little. The Loonie looks the most interesting at the moment.

Loonie: I noted the wedge pattern in my w/e analysis and price seems to be breaking up and out from this:

Loonie4hr

E/U: chopping sideways:

EU4

E/J ditto:

EJ4

A/U: I have relaxed the trend line here to reflect recent resistance:

AU4

A/J: chopping sideways too:

AJ4

Cable: note how the price is respecting the wedge bear trend line, yet again:

GU4

Kiwi: doing little:

Kiwi4

U/J: a bit lower with the weaker USD:

UJ4

GBP/JPY: planking!

GJ4hr

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