TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s gross domestic product for July-September may fall 0.2% from the second quarter, or an annualized rate of -0.9%, due to weak capital investment and consumption, according to nine economists surveyed by MNI.
Their projections ranged from -0.2% to -0.5% quarterly, or annualized rates of -0.7% to -2.1%.
The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for Q3 at 0850 JST on Nov. 14 (2350 GMT on Nov. 13).
The expected contraction follows a gain of 0.7% in Q2, or an annualized rate of 3.0%.
The economists expect Q3 capital investment to be flat following +3.1% in Q2, with forecasts ranging from -1.1% to +1.1%, following +3.1% in Q2.
Meanwhile, the median of forecast for private consumption, making up 60% of GDP, is -0.2% in Q3 from Q2 (ranging from -0.5% to 0.0%) following +0.7% in Q2.
Private consumption was hit by typhoons and a major earthquake, the economists said.
The BOJ’s supply-side Consumption Activity Index fell 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for August following a 0.0% fall in July.
The Cabinet Office’s Private Consumption Integrated Estimates Index, which is based on both supply- and demand-side data, was unchanged in August following -0.6% in July.
The economists expect contribution from net exports and services to have fallen 0.1 percentage point (pp) with forecast ranging from -0.3 pp to 0.0 pp, following -0.1 pp in the second quarter.
The Bank of Japan’s real export index fell 1.9% on quarter in Q3 after rising 0.6% in Q2.
Looking ahead, the economists expect the economy to recover moderately in Q4. The U.S.-China trade dispute may add risks to global demand and Japan’s exports, they said.
–MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: firstname.lastname@example.org