SOCGEN NY OPEN – FXWW Chatroom

{CA} Overnight the west reached a nuclear accord with Iran which put pressure on oil prices and the currencies of oil producing countries including the C$ which managed to break through the 1.2800 level but hasn’t extended gains after the initial stops (read barriers) were tripped. The next big level to the topside is now 1.2830-40 which was more or less the top in March. Down below we have demand (locals and RM) into 1.2650-70. EURCAD has tried to broke through the 1.4200 region a few times in recent sessions but has been rejected thus far saying that we ran into bids circa 1.3900 y’day and we reckon a clean break in either direction has implications for for USDCAD. There are ~500bn of 1.2750-75s rolling off this AM which could keep us pinned into this region for now 

{GB} Another big story overnight came in the UK where Carney sounded cautiously dovish in front of parliament {NSN NRH2A26JIJUV<Go>} this took GBP higher as the market was caught a bit off gaurd by the comment in light of the slightly lower than expected inflation prints earlier in the morning. In any event EURGBP is probing lower though support around 7080 and now has the recent support into 7040 in its sights (with the cycle lows ~7000 not that far away). The topside is very clean for us with 7150 the next real resistance of note. GBPUSD has also ripped higher through 1.5600 (which was a pivot to the downside last week). From here we expect to see resistance into 1.5620-40 which capped the pair earlier in the month. Down below there are bids on the books into 1.5480-1.5500 but before that 1.5550 should be a s/t support judging from price action y’day. Otherwise we would expect to see demand into the 1.5420 region which is an important level on the charts (where the 200DMA lies). I should point out that there are some scatted 7075-7100 expiries rolling off this morning that could support the market prior to 10am 

{EU} It was a generally uneventful session in EURUSD overnight with some local demand seen in the flows here (and away from us from what we can tell). This leaves the market just below 1.1040 (which is more or less where we started out y’day). From here we keep an eye on 1.0980 where some bids are forming on the books but 1.0950 remains the pivot as the dip below here brought out longer term demand last week and we are interested to see if this repeats today. Up above we ran into resistance into 1.1200 y’day with the more important upside levels 1.1240 and then 1.1300 both been rejected in recent weeks. There are some good sized downside expiries in the market this morning  with +1.7bn of 1.100s rolling off and ~1.5bn of 1.0950s which I suppose could drag us lower into 10am EST 

{SZ} Weaker than expected PPI data this morning took EURCHF through  bids here into 1.0400-20 but so far we’ve managed to hold 1.0400 and anticipate “local demand” showing up into recent support 1.0380-1.0400. Meanwhile USDCHF made a push through 9500 overnight on lower EURUSD but the stronger CHF this morning has pulled us back through the 9480-9500 which has been a hurdle for the pair over the past week. Saying that not much to speak of below until 9350 where  there should be some bids but expect stops below 

{JN} Not a lot of drivers in USDJPY (or EURJPY/AUDJPY which have been the focus of late as well). We saw modest local edmand in our flows here and there is talk of continued support for USDJPY and XJPy from equity buying. But from here we dont have muc in the way of support until 122.80-60 with the bigger support into 122.00-20 on the charts (although we dont have bids below on the books here until 121.80-50). Meanwhile we look for selling into 123.80-124.00 (which capped the move a few weeks ago). Also of note the 135.00-134.80 region ought to be a pivot in EURJPY which if breached could cause stops. There is +750mln of 123.25-75s which could keep us pinned in place for now 


{AU} AUDUSD continues to find demand on dips into 7400-7380 for the time bing but we filled in some modest selling interest into 7440 on the move higher. From here we continue to take in macro selling interest and in fact we have taken in further offers into 7480-7500 now. Down below 7380 is the next support on the charts and expect stops through there if breached. I should add that AUDJPY has been pretty stable after big moves last week and it feels like we have worked our way into a 91.20-80 range for the times being. We expect there to be offers then stops into 92.00-25 – we continue to watch this cross as it will have implications on both AUD$ (and USDJPY for that matter). There are about 500mln of 7430-50s which could come into play later this morning 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.