Societe Generale – FX Techs View

Reasserting the overall uptrend, USD/JPY has given a break above the triangle within which
the consolidation since last December evolved. Daily RSI is breaking above a horizontal
resistance which gives credence to price break. The pair looks poised to retest previous highs of
121.50/85 and will even probably head towards 2007 highs of 124, also a multi decadal trend
line resistance. Monthly stochastic continues to hover close to a graphical resistance however,
reversal signs are still lacking. Short term pullback if any should be cushioned at 120, the triangle
limit.

EUR/USD has almost achieved our earlier highlighted target of 1.08, a projection for the ABC
correction. Weekly RSI is diverging and is close to a support. A pullback is not ruled out however
it should be of corrective nature and confined to 1.0970/1.1090.

GBP/USD formed a (near) weekly bearish engulfing which has enveloped previous four weeks of
price action. It is noteworthy that the pattern formed after a rebound towards the 20 week MA
and could be a sign for next leg of downtrend. The pair is closing in on previous lows of
1.4940/00, the multiyear upward channel limit. Monthly stochastic indicator is breaking support
highlighting underlying weakness. A clear break below 1.4940/00 will confirm further downtrend.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5170 while 1.5290 should decide if the rebound extends.

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