The FX indices have broken out of their recent daily triangles on increased momentum and Oil looks to be trying for a recovery move with the monthly close. Gold has pulled back from its recent high but is holding above the $1,100 support level. These moves are helping a bigger picture to form up but the monthly close, after Friday’s trade, needs to be seen to develop this image.
USDX daily: the triangle has been broken to the downside with increased momentum. Watch for any continuation here:
EURX daily: this triangle has been broken to the upside with increased momentum:
Gold: The TC ‘LONG’ signal has closed off here after giving 200 pips. Price action continues consolidating within the bullish wedge on the weekly chart but any developing weakness with the US$ will help to support the metal. The daily chart shows some resistance stepping in with the daily 200 EMA and a 61.8% fib region and these will need to be negotiated before any bullish continuation. After these levels there is the long-term S/R level of $1,145 to navigate:
Gold weekly: watch the wedge trend lines:
Gold daily: the metal has to negotiate the daily 200 EMA and, then, the recent 61.8% fib ties in with the multi-year wedge trend line. After those, watch the $1,145 level.
Gold 4hr: the daily 200 EMA has held price in check here for the time being.
Oil: this has recovered and price action is up testing a 12 week bear trend line which ties in with a recent 61.8% fib and the 4hr 200 EMA. Note also how price is back above the Feb ’09 lows of $33.55. These is the level to watch in the coming session as the month candle closes:
Forex: there is BoJ Interest Rate news to watch for during the Asian session today. After that there is EUR CPI Flash Estimates, CAD GDP and USD Advance GDP:
EUR/USD: this has made a bullish triangle breakout on the daily and 4hr time frame.
E/U daily: watch for any resistance from the congested 61.8% fib and daily 200 EMA:
A/U 4hr: price action has made it above the 4hr 200 EMA but now needs to get over the recent swing low 61.8% fib:
USD/CAD 4hr: I’m watching to see where this closes after Friday. A monthly close below 1.40 would be bearish AND any developing weakness with the US$, which in turn might underpin Oil, would help to keep pressure on this pair:
EUR/AUD 4hr: still consolidating in a triangle under 1.55:
EUR/GBP 4hr: in a triangle here too under the 0.77 level: