The cycle of the US$ printing lower Lows and Lower Highs has yet to be broken. Risk appetite was seen in the last session which surprised many given the drop in Oil. However, the Bull Flag breakouts on a number of stock indices, noted here on the w/e, should have urged caution for Bears. 4hr-based FX momentum seems to be Missing in Action but this isn’t too surprising as we wait for this week’s ECB meeting.
USDX daily: still tending down for now:
EURX daily: the overall trend is still UP for now:
OIl 4hr: note how price bounced up for the 61.8% fib:
Gold daily: the jury is still OUT here for now:
TC Signals:
GBP/AUD 4hr: the signal closed off but is still trending lower. Watch the channel trend lines for any make or break action:
EUR/AUD 4hr: this signal closed off too BUT a new one is trying to form. Note that the major triangle trend line is just below though so watch for any make or break here too:
AUD/USD: this has broken above the recent ‘Double Top’ and printed a new TC LONG signal BUT there is a bit of AUD data to navigate today: AUD Monetary Policy Minutes and an RBA Gov Stevens speech. However, any continuation will have me watching the 0.80 level:
A/U 4hr:
A/U daily:
A/U monthly:
Other FX:
EUR/USD 4hr: still ranging with little momentum ahead of ECB: set down for later in the week. Note the lack of momentum here though:
E/J 4hr: note the bounce off the support from the wedge trend line and key 122 area. All warned about in my w/e update:
A/J 4hr: this retreated from the 61.8% fib but, not for long. This is also trying to form a new TC LONG signal. Watch with today’s AUD data though:
GBP/USD 4hr: consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s GBP Employment data. There is also a BoE Gov Carney speech later today to navigate here:
NZD/USD 4hr: no new signal yet but watch with today’s GDT Price Index data for any wedge trend line breakout or respect:
USD/JPY 4hr: I noted on the w/e just how strong this weekly 200 EMA support has been and it’s still lending a hand here:
GBP/JPY 4hr: I also noted how important the 154.50 level has been for this pair and price keeps gravitating back there! A triangle was broken but note the current lack of supporting momentum. Watch for any impact from the BoE Gov Carney speech:
USD/CAD 4hr: has bounced back down off the 1.30 level….yet again! Price action is still conforming to the descending channel and a new TC signal is trying to form here too. Watch today for any impact though from the BoC Gov Poloz speech:
EUR/NZD 4hr: triangle-bound here but note the momentum, or rather, lack there of! Watch with tonight’s GDT Price Index data:
GBP/NZD 4hr: price bounced up off trend line support here but note here too the lack of 4hr momentum. Watch for any further test of the key 2.065 level: After that, watch the upper trend line:
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