TC and trend lines in a big data week: By Mary McNamara

Last week: Last week was a rather spectacular week for TC as there was an abundance of, what I refer to as, Optimal-style TC signals. These are TC signals that trigger alongside a new trend line breakout and they generally offer a low-risk trade set-up having a high probability of successful follow-through with great Reward to Risk potential. I have completed two trading trials with TC this year and I’m currently contemplating how to best take this forward into the New Year. The good news though is that there are lots of new 4hr chart technical patterns to monitor for any new breakout in a week filled with lots of high impact data.

Trend line breakout & TC signal tally: there was an abundance of great trend line breakouts and new TC signals last week that were noted on my site herehere, and here:

  • Gold TC: 260.
  • EUR/USD: 60 pips.
  • EUR/JPY: 90 pips.
  • GBP/AUD: 150 pips and 230 pips.
  • GBP/NZD: 160 pips. and 220 pips.
  • EUR/AUD 50 pips and 100 pips.
  • Oil: 130 pips and 130 pips.
  • USD/JPY: 45 pips (TC signal).
  • EUR/NZD: 150 pips.
  • USD/JPY: 70 pips.
  • AUD/USD: 30 pips.
  • GBP/JPY: 300 pips.
  • GBP/USD: 140 pips.

Next week:

  • FX Indices: the US$ continues to hold above 92.50 support but I’ve revised the index into a new Flag pattern, An update on both FX indices can be found through this link.
  • Brexit: remains in the news with latest media reports suggesting some progress is being made.
  • XJO: ASX-200: the 6,000 level remains the one to watch for any new make or break activity:

  • NASDAQ: I am still long-term bullish on this index but trends don’t run in straight lines forever. Thus, I’m always on the lookout for any pullback here and note the 61.8% fib of the latest swing high (daily chart) is back near the 5,200 ascending triangle breakout level.

  • NB: this is just a brief update as I am away for the w/e. Update will remain brief over our summer holiday period (Dec-Jan).

Calendar: It is a huge week for data with four Central Bank Rate updates: FOMC  (USD), SNB (CHF), BoE (GBP) and ECB (EUR):

Forex: Watch the 4hr charts of the following instruments for any momentum-base trend line breakout. Other key S/R levels noted where relevant:

EUR/USD: Also watch the 1.18 level, especially with the ECB rate update:

EUR/JPY: Also watch the 134 level:

AUD/USD: Also watch the 0.755 level, especially with AUD Employment data and FOMC:


NZD/USD: Also watch the 0.68 level with FOMC:

GBP/USD: Also watch the 1.35 level and previously broken 3 -year bear trend line. There is a lot of news to impact the Cable this week: the BoE rate update, GBP CPI, GBP Employment data, GBP Retail Sales, US FOMC and any further Brexit development news:

USD/JPY: Also watch the 114.50 level:

GBP/JPY: Also watch the weekly 200 EMA:

GBP/AUD: Also watch the 1.80 level:


EUR/AUD: watch also the key 1.55 level:


Gold: Also watch the $1,250 level:

Oil: Also watch the weekly 200 EMA. Oil offered two great TC trade opportunities last week, each for 130 pips, and so it is worth keeping this in focus as well:

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