TC: Tue 23rd afternoon update by Mary McNamara

Without any high impact USD data released as yet this week the USD has continued to waver under major resistance. I really want to see a ‘make or break’ of this region before being too confident with any trend signals. There is USD New Home Sales data released tomorrow and we may have to wait for that to see any movement on the index. That is unless renewed geopolitical concern takes a hold again.

USDX daily: still consolidating under major resistance from the 78.6% fib and the monthly trend line:


USDX monthly:


TC Signals: the lack of directional movement on the indices is messing around with momentum based signals. No excuses…just a fact.

EUR/AUD: has now closed for -60 ALTHOUGH I had said this morning that I was waiting for a close above the daily 200 EMA which did not evolve:


USD/CAD: is down as well BUT I’m waiting for any test / break of the major bear trend line:


CAD/JPY: I’m waiting for a ‘Flag’ break here to confirm the next move. Traders need to remember this is an overall, monthly chart bullish ascending triangle pattern here:


E/U: still flat and the TC signal closed off but EUR data is out soon:


Other FX: a bit of Yen strength might be creeping in here:

U/J: A ‘flag’ is forming on the 4hr chart. A pull back would be appreciated:

U/J daily: a 50% fib pull back of the recent bull run would bring price down to test the major 105.5 level:


U/J 4hr: watch the trend lines here:


GBP/JPY: here too as well. Watch for trend line breaks. A pull back to test 173 is down near the 61.8% fib of the recent bull run:


E/J: I’m also open to a pull back here as well but the weekly trend line is just below current price and may offer support. Any breach of this though and I’d look for a pull back to the 61.8% fib and the previous triangle trend line:


A/U: this is a little higher after the better than expected Chinese data and I am still on the lookout for that weekly bullish inverse H&S to develop: 

A/U 4 hr:


A/U weekly:


Cable: I’m actually going to wait for a breakout from this descending broadening wedge. There isn’t any high impact GBP data this week so movement will have to come from USD data:


Kiwi: I’m waiting to see how this pair responds to Wednesday’s NZD Trade Balance data. Price is being supported by the weekly 200 EMA for now: 


A/J: got a boost with the Chinese data BUT any pull back on the U/J might help this pair still to test back down at 96:


AUD/NZD: momentum has shifted here a bit and thus I’ve adjusted the trend lines to try and track the next breaking move:


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