The BOE and the weathervane (July 1st)

During his last speech at the Bank of England, Gov Carney mentioned the weathervane that was installed in 1805 to help the BOE in their forecasts. When the wind blew from the East, ships could come up the Thames, so merchants would need credit to buy goods. When it came from the West, credit should be withdrawn. He also added that today’s forecasting models are more complex but less reliable than the Regency-era forecasting model.
This week was characterized by the opening gaps, particularly in the GBP pairs.

The Gbp/Jpy opened with a negative gap of 346 pips, followed by the Gbp/Usd and 250 pips. The Gbp will remain under pressure and shorts should be considered for the the pairs.
The Eur/Usd re-entered the previous trading zone, (above 1,11) and technically will trade between 1,11 and 1,14. Bad news about European banks, referendums, elections etc could affect the pair (and all Eur pairs) and send the pair lower. Fundamentally it should move lower but technically remain above 1,11.Gbp/Usd, Gbp/Jpy, Gbp/Aud. All pairs should be considered for shorts. Wait for the proper retracements and setups.

Aud/Usd closed with a profit of 83 pips and considering the opening gap of -53 pips it finally closed with an overall profit of 30 pips. It looks small but the pair had the dynamic to move above the emas and close the week without an upper wick at 0,75. I already have a long on the pair, that I called this week, and expect it to move higher and test 0,76 where I will close my trade.

Eur/Jpy also covered the opening gap and closed with a profit at 114. This is a tricky pair because the pressure on the Euro remains but the BOJ would also like to see a weakening JPY. Now that the Brexit matter is over, I expect traders to move away from the JPY for some more profitable investments.

Eur/Aud the pair started the week by moving higher but finally closed the week with a bearish candle formation. I expect it to continue lower and test support at 1,4450. I already have shorts on this pair so I will not take any more trades.

Usd/Jpy made a weak attempt to move higher and closed the week with a profit of 95 pips (from which 62 pips have to be subtracted because of the negative opening gap). I expect the pair to start moving higher but since I already have open longs, I will not trade it this week.

Usd/Cad the pair started with a positive gap of 41 pips and closed the week with a loss of 131 pips. I called a short, that I am planning to close at 1,28 or better.

Plenty of news, events and speeches for the week starting with the US Bank holiday on Monday (4th of July) and ending with NFP report on Friday.

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