The G20, Mrs May and the Brexit (Sep 3)

A G20 meeting is taking place in Hangzhou, China on Sunday and Monday and Mrs Theresa May (UK Prime minister) will meet for the first time (as a PM) with the global leaders and will set the pace for the Brexit. Bilateral meetings take place during G20 members and the results are not always announced but their effect is visible in the months following the meeting. After all the G20 members represent the 90% of the global GDP, 80% of the global trade and two thirds of the world’s population.I hope that some of you did not follow my advice concerning the Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy and went long on them. They are the winners and the movers of the week. I remain with my analysis and will avoid trading them. I expect the JPY to get weaker and the JPY pairs to continue moving higher. My only concern is the future of the Euro and the GBP that I expect to move lower sooner or later. The Usd/Jpy is expected to move higher.

The Eur/Usd closed with a loss of 28 pips but is expected to move lower, the Gbp/Usd closed with profits but was not able to break resistance and is also expected to move lower (I opened a new short that I called in my blog). The Aud/Usd practically unchanged.

The Eur/Aud closed with a loss and is under pressure, the Gbp/Aud had an important up move of 210 pips but is testing resistance and is expected to bounce (hint, I might open a second short on this one).

The Usd/Cad was the only USD pair that did not recover after the NFP and closed just below 1,30 in the middle of the trading range (1,28-1,32). Wait for potential test of the borders.

As mentioned at the beginning of the text, the G20 summit meeting is (in my opinion) the most important event of the week, Monday is a holiday in US and Canada. Interest rate from Australia, Canada and for the Euro are not expected to affect the pairs. Watch also for news from GB. Better than expected will keep sending the pairs higher but also read what Mrs May will say about the Brexit.

 

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