TL breakout update for 1st day of Winter: TC

I’d seen mention of a potential ‘June Swoon’ but I’m hoping overnight price action undermines such a phenomenon. There have been some great trend line breakout trades as the US$ weakened but, even still, the US$ index is hanging on to a recent support level. A break of this could trigger many new moves so keep an eye on how the US$ moves from here, the trend lines on your charts and, especially on Gold! PS: It’s Winter down here where I am.

Data today: watch for AUD Private Capital Expenditure data, CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI, JPY Manufacturing PMI, lots of EUR PMIs, GBP Manufacturing PMI and USD ADP NFP.

USDX weekly: watch for any break of Cloud support.


Trend line breakout trades: there have been a lot of great breakout trade opportunities today and I know of at least one TC Trial participant who caught the Oil move. I cannot urge strongly enough, the most reliable signals come when TC triggers with, or near, a tend line breakout so stalk those instruments!

Oil: this breakout move gave up to 150 pips and was one of the better ones on the day. The 4hr chart from yesterday showed a great triangle as reproduced here:

Oil 4hr: from yesterday’s post:


This is the 4hr chart today showing a great breakout move:


Oil 15 min: a new TC SHORT triggered just before the trend line break and even waiting for a break of said TL still offered a move worth 150 pips.


USD/CNH: what a breakout! This was the 4hr chart from yesterday:


This is the 4hr chart today after a massive 700 pip breakout move:


USD/CNH 15 min: the TC signal was not valid at first but, maybe, a subsequent shift to an up-trending ADX should be considered as sufficient??  Thoughts?


Gold: has given around 80 pips and note the break of $1,265 S/R. There is the major 6-year bear trend line just ahead of price action now and any breakdown on the US$ index would help to support Gold in a move up to this major zone!

Gold 4hr:


Gold 15 min: the signal candle closed right on the top of the Cloud so if that did not inspire confidence then a close above the $1,265 may have:


EUR/USD: a breakout, albeit a small one; just 35 pips with NFP looming:

E/U 4hr:


E/U 15 min: the move came with a new TC LONG though:


GBP/AUD: a breakout here for almost 100 pips.

G/A 4hr:


G/A 15 min: a new TC signal here too but waiting for a trend line break would have given more confidence. In that case, placing a Stop just the other side of the trend line would have worked:


EUR/NZD:  a breakout here for just 70 pips.

E/N 4hr:


E/N 15 min: much the same as with the G/A 15 min; wait for a TL break and put Stop just below this:


USD/MXN 4hr: this move peaked at 2,400. Note the revised trend lines here now:

USD/MXN 4hr:


USD/MXN 4hr: revised trend lines:


USD/TRY 4hr: this is now at 300 pips:


Other Forex:

EUR/JPY: a breakout starting here? There has been a TC signal and breakout but it hasn’t moved far:

E/J 4hr


E/J 15 min:


AUD/USD 4hr: watch with today’s AUD, JPY and CNY data:


AUD/JPY 4hr: ditto:


NZD/USD 4hr: watch with CNY data:


NZD/JPY 4hr: diito:


GBP/USD: I’ve revised the trend lines here however, this gave a decent 15 min chart TC trade based off yesterday’s trend lines. Watch with today’s GBP and USD data:

GBP/USD 4hr:


GBP/USD 15 min:


USD/JPY 4hr: watch with JPY and USD data:


GBP/JPY: ranging in the channel BUT this gave a TC 15 min chart trade. Watch with today’s GBP and JPY data:

GBP/JPY 4hr:


GBP/JPY 15 mn:


GBP/NZD 4hr: a move starting?


EUR/AUD: this pair has moved to to the upper trend line and, in doing so, gave a great 15 min chart TC trade opportunity:

E/A 4hr:


E/A 15 min: there was great Risk to Reward TC trade here! It triggered at the end of the Asian session although there was a TC Continuation signal at the start of Europe but this later signal would have needed a larger Stop.


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