UBS…Euro Crosses In Focus by Zurich & Singapore Spot Desks Nov 30

From the FXWW Chatroom – EURUSD: The support at 1.0565/70 held three times last week, so there could be a small squeeze towards 1.0670/90. The euro is likely to remain under pressure, however, and we prefer selling, with a stop above 1.0700, targeting a move towards 1.0570. Support at 1.0570, 1.0520, and 1.0455. 

USDJPY has been rangebound in seemingly low volumes. Euro crosses are in focus ahead of one of the key ECB meetings of 2015. US November jobs report will also be out Friday. The market is looking for a confirmation of a Fed hike later this month. USDJPY has not bounced recently but expectations are high. It might not move much for now but beware of some profit taking. Play the 122.20-123.20 range. EURJPY is a sell on rallies around 130.50 with a stop above 131.00, targeting the Fibonnaci support at 129.63, after which there is not much technically ahead of 129.90, the March low, and 126.10, the April low. 

USDCHF: The US dollar and euro trends are firmly in place and that is unlikely to change today. Look for dips to buy USDCHF; support is at 1.0285 and 1.0250, with resistance at 1.0330. EURCHF is trading bullish and a test of the resistance at 1.0960 and 1.1000 seems possible. Support at 1.0870/80. 

Cable is holding above 1.5000. The market is waiting on Thursday’s ECB meeting and there is unlikely to be much action until then. The BoE’s Financial Stability Report is due at 8:00am CET tomorrow, followed by PMI data for the rest of the week. GBPUSD support at 1.5015, 1.5000 and 1.4960; resistance at 1.5076 and 1.5150. EURGBP is trading 0.7000-0.7100. We prefer selling the cross on rallies heading into Thursday. Support at 0.7022, 0.6982 and 0.6951; resistance at 0.7080 and 0.7126. 

ubs..  AUDUSD has traded 0.7171-0.7199 today and positioning seems extremely light after the short-covering last week. Today’s price action will mostly be driven by month-end rebalancing. The focus tomorrow shifts to the RBA meeting, followed by the ECB on Thursday. Support at 0.7160, 0.7125 and 0.7030; resistance at 0.7220, 0.7285 and 0.7310. 

NZDUSD has lacked clear direction for the past two weeks and continues to trade sideways. Look to play the range, with 0.6460/0.6500 likely to hold on the downside and 0.6625/0.6675 capping the upside. The GDT auction will be held tomorrow. Support at 0.6490, 0.6455 and 0.6425; resistance at 0.6620, 0.6700 and 0.6810. 

USDCAD reversed an early move lower on Friday after disappointing producer prices data. The pair climbed to a fresh high of 1.3375 with oil prices under renewed pressure. USDCAD remains driven by price action in crude. Stick to shorts, with a stop above 1.34. Support at 1.3280, 1.3225 and 1.3140; resistance at 1.3380, 1.3390 and 1.3460. 

EURNOK has been edging off of the low as crude oil has come under renewed pressure. We prefer selling on rallies towards 9.24, with a stop above 9.28, targeting a test of last week’s low of 9.1480. EURSEK has mostly followed EURUSD, which has pushed the cross down to the lower end of its range. We prefer selling rallies towards 9.30, with a stop above 9.36, targeting a test of the support at 9.1700. (Zurich spot desk) 

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