U/J continues, a major USD/CAD breakout & Kiwi breakdown brewing? : by Mary McNamara

Maybe the 9/11 trading day was always going to be fraught but nerves entered US stock markets as geopolitical issues were brought back into focus following President Obama’s speech. The weaker US jobs report would not have helped either. However, as choppy as the S&P500 was, there was obvious buying into the close.

S&P500 30 min:


Indices: the USD index continues to chop sideways under major resistance but the EURX is enjoying the reprieve:

USDX 4hr: choppy under the 78.6% fib and monthly trend line:


EURX: still below major support levels but not falling too far just yet:


Forex: a possible TC signal is building on the A/J but major, technical level breakout moves are building on the Kiwi and USD/CAD.

E/U: still watching for any bullish ‘inverse H&S’ action here:


E/J: although descending triangles are bearish patterns the E/J looks set to make a bullish close up and out of this triangle. Watch for any pull back and test for a continuation move:


A/U: this descending triangle break continues and has given 130 pips of a possible 280 pips so far. However I’m more hopeful about a possible pause and evolution of a potential bullish ‘inverse H&S’ here:


A/J: this has made a bearish triangle break and may form a new TC signal. Price is below the 4hr and hourly Ichimoku and so any new TC signal would be valid. I have been saying that I’d expect the 96 level to be tested and, if there is bearish continuation, that would be the obvious target:


Cable: no clear picture here yet. The gap has yet to fill:


Kiwi: looks set to make a daily close below the 0.82 and monthly support trend line. Look for a weekly close below this level for further bearish follow through potential. This may continue to chop around a bit more though until after next week’s NZ elections:

Kiwi 4hr:


Kiwi monthly: showing bearish targets for any possible follow through:


U/J: this bullish triangle break move is now up 420 pips!


GBP/JPY: continues to hold above the 173 level which is bullish:


GBP/AUD: this TC signal that wasn’t valid has gone on for 330 pips now:


EUR/AUD: in my w/e write up I had stressed to watch for reaction at the 1.381 level. Well, the reaction has been a 400 pip move higher!


GBP/CHF: still chopping within a Flag pattern:


USD/CAD: looks set to close above the 1.10 which is a major psychological break and boost for this pair. The USD/CAD is now less than 100 pips below a major monthly chart triangle bear trend line and a major triangle breakout is brewing:

USD/CAD 4hr:


USD/CAD daily: less than 100 pips below a major trend line dating back to 2001!LoonieDaily

USD/CAD monthly: showing the looming triangle breakout: 


Gold: has bounced up off the $1,240 support:


Silver: has fallen below $19 support BUT is still within the trading channel:


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