U/J: trade idea for after NFP by Mary McNamara

The U/J is currently tackling the major 61.8% fib level of the 2007-2012 bear move at 105.5. This follows on from yet another ‘Bull Flag’ breakout on the 4hr chart. A weekly close above this level after NFP would be a bullish signal and would suggest continuation.

U/J 4hr: showing yesterday’s ‘Bull Flag’ breakout. A new 4hr chart TC signal is trying to build here BUT the signal candle looks set to close outside the Bollinger band:

UJ4

U/J daily: this 4 hr chart ‘Bull Flag’ move was just one other following on from the earlier triangle breakout on the weekly chart. 

UJdaily

U/J weekly: the weekly chart shows the triangle breakout and how this move has has already yielded 270 pips. The weekly chart also shows how this key 61.8% fib level was tested back in Dec 2013. Any bullish close above this key level might see this level continue to be tested a few times before any potential continuation:

UJweekly

U/J monthly: the monthly chart shows the importance of the 105.5 level as the 61.8% fib of the 2007-2012 bear move. It also shows how the recent triangle breakout is the ‘Handle’ part of my bullish ‘Cup ‘n’ Handle’ pattern. The target for this pattern is at 124.5. A close and hold above the 105.5 level would support this ‘Cup ‘n’ Handle’ pattern.

UJmonthly

Summary:

  • Watch for any weekly close above the 105.5 level after Friday’s NFP. This would support ‘long’ trades.
  • The 105.5 level is a major S/R level and may continue to be tested a few times before any possible bullish continuation. Thus, trade management might be a challenge for some traders (read here: me!)
  • Any close and hold above the 105.5 would support the bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle pattern with a potential target of 124.5.

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