UK VOTE: Election 2017 – The Road To Downing Street: MNI

–Adds final polls from most companies, Ipsos Mori poll due midday
–UK Broadcasters to publish exit poll at 2200BST (2100GMT)

LONDON (MNI) – Latest polling data

Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP

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BMG 6/7/2017 46% 33% 8% 5% 2% Survation 6/7/2017 41% 40% 8% 2% 2% YouGov/Times 6/7/2017 42% 35% 10% 5% 2% Kantar 6/7/2017 43% 38% 7% 4% 2% Panelbase 6/7/2017 44% 36% 7% 5% 2% Surveymonkey/Sun 6/7/2017 42% 38% 6% 4% 3% ComRes/Independent 6/7/2017 44% 34% 9% 5% 2% ICM 6/7/2017 46% 34% 7% 5% 2% Opinium 6/7/2017 43% 36% 8% 5% 2% Survation 6/6/2017 43% 36% 8% 5% 2% YouGov/Scotland 6/6/2017 26% 25% 6% 2% 41% Survation 6/5/2017 41% 40% 6% 3% 2% ICM/Guardian 6/5/2017 45% 34% 8% 5% 3% Survation 6/4/2017 40% 39% 8% 5% 3% ORB/Sun Tel 6/4/2017 45% 36% 8% 4% 2% YouGov/Sun Times 6/4/2017 42% 38% 9% 4% 3% ICM/Sunday Sun 6/4/2017 45% 34% 9% 5% 3% Comres 6/3/2017 47% 35% 8% 4% 2% Opinium 6/3/2017 43% 37% 6% 5% 2% Ipsos Mori/Standard 6/2/2017 45% 40% 7% 2% 2% Panelbase 6/1/2017 44% 36% 7% 5% 3% YouGov 6/1/2017 42% 39% 7% 4% 2% SurveyMonkey 5/31/2017 44% 38% 6% 4% 3% Kantar 5/31/2017 43% 33% 11% 4% 3% IpsosMori Scotland 5/31/2017 25% 25% 5% 1% 43%

**National campaigning was suspended on May 23 in the wake of the Manchester terrorist attack. Campaigning resumed May 26

The UK Parliament was dissolved on Tuesday May 3, triggering a near 6-week campaign ahead of the June 8 election.

To win an outright majority in the UK, the winning party must pick up 326 of the 650 constituency seats fought, although 323 will normally be enough for a working majority, as the likely 4 or 5 Sinn Fein MPs will not take their seats at Westminster.

The latest polls show the governing Conservative Party will easily reach this target, surpassing the majority 330 seats they won at the 2015 election.

Historically, the two main parties are the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right Conservative Party. As last time, the economy will be a major battle ground, but analysts expect Brexit to be the overriding feature of the election.

The Conservatives are led by current Prime Minister Theresa May, who assumed the role last July in the wake of the EU referendum defeat for David Cameron. Jeremy Corbyn has led the Labour Party since the summer of 2015.

The Scottish Nationalist Party look likely to surrender some of the spectacular gains made in 2015, perhaps to a resurgent Scottish Conservative Party, but will remain by far the largest party north of the border.

With Brexit all but secured, the UK Independence Party, UKIP, will likely see a fall in their overall vote share and it seems unlikely they will return any MPs. Douglas Carswell, the only UKIP MP in the last Parliament, resigned from the party earlier this year and said he would not seek re-election in 2017.

The Liberal Democrats will hope pick up some seats, particularly in areas that voted heavily ‘Remain’ in 2016, but they enter the election at a very low base. They won just 8 seats, down sharply from the 56 held at the 2015 dissolution.

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June 8

Polls open at 0700BST Thursday and close at 2200BST, when the main broadcasters will publish their joint election exit poll. Official results will start coming in from 2300BST, although the bulk of results will be expected between 0230 and 0430BST Friday.

June 7

Wednesday is the final full day of the election campaign, with the leaders of all main parties likely to be at events up and down the country. Security and Brexit will remain to the fore in the Conservative campaign, while Labour will likely concentrate on public services.

June 6

As the election campaign enters the final few days, polls have narrowed significantly, although there is still a minimum 10 point difference in the Conservative lead over Labour, with some polls suggesting a single point lead and others a lead of up to 12%. According to pollsters, the main differences in poll outcomes depend on the weighting of turnout expectations for difference demographic groups.

Security has obviously moved to the from to election campaigns in the UK with Labour targeting the record of PM Theresa May, particularly during her term as Home Secretary. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn sees his voting record on previous terror legislation under scrutiny.

June 4

National campaigning by the two main parties was again on hold Sunday, as the UK attempted to come to terms with the second major terror attack in less than a fortnight. The Conservatives will resume national campaigning Monday, while Labour say they will resume with an event later Sunday evening.

June 2

The election campaign enters the final 7 days and the volatile polls still show a Conservative lead over Labour, narrowing, but probably still enough to secure a majority in the Commons.

June 1

Despite indications that he wouldn’t attend, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn did appear for the televised leaders’ debate in Cambridge. PM Theresa May did not appear.

A further mixed bag of polling data in the past 24 hours, with the latest conventional YouGov poll showing the Conservative lead shrinking to 3% over Labour.

May 31

The BBC will hold their main election debate Wednesday, although nother Prime Minister Theresa May or leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn expected to participate.

May 30

Prime Minister Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn faced audience questions on a TV special Monday. May again tried to focus on Brexit, with Corbyn looking at his plans for an extended welfare state. Both got through the evening without major mishap, thus offering little new to the overall story.

May 28

Weekend polls showed a continued narrowing of the overall polls, although not breaking below the 5-point Conservative lead seen in Friday’s YouGov poll.

May 26

National campaigning resumes Friday against the backdrop of Monday’s terror attack. Prime Minister Theresa May is in Sicily for the G7 meeting of heads of government. Labour leader will hope to build on improved poll readings, delivering a speech on dealing with terrorism.

May 25

National campaigning by the main parties is likely to resume on Friday. Thursday will see a national minute of silence at 1100 local time and local campaigning is expected to begin. Conservatives, Labour and the LibDems are all expected to return to the national trail Friday, although PM Theresa May will be in Italy for the G7 gathering.

May 24

Campaigning remains suspended Wednesday.

Overnight, the UK raised the security threat level to Critical, the highest on the scale, suggesting a further attack was likely imminent. The heightened security level could see military personnel patrolling certain parts of the UK, offering back up to the police at major sporting and cultural events.

May 23

Following the terrorist attack in Manchester Monday, campaigning for the General Election has been suspended ‘until further notice’,

May 22

UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a pre-election grilling Monday, as she was subjected to a bruising interview on a day the calm fell away from the ruling party’s election campaign. May’s TV appearance came at the end of a harrowing day on the campaign trail. After a weekend that saw a string of opinion polls pointing to a much reduced Conservative lead, there was already unease amongst Tory campaign managers, but helped as May face a hostile press conference accusing her of policy u-turns on a recent manifesto pledge. How Monday will play out into the opinion polls is yet to be seen, but for sure, any feeling of complacency Conservative high command had will now be firmly set aside. Interviewed on BBC, May was pressed on matters from public spending, to trust, Brexit and migration levels going forward.

May 19

The first Leaders’ Debate of the election was held Thursday, although Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, the leaders of the two largest parties, declined to take place. The debate saw the leaders of UKIP, the SNP, the LibDems, Plaid Cywmru and the Greens discuss issues.

May 18

The Conservatives will publish their election manifesto Thursday, with pre-briefings to the press suggesting there will be a revised timetable for eliminating the deficit, seeing the date pushed back to the mid 2020s. There is also expected to be confirmation that the tax lock committment from 2015 will also be dropped.

PM May and Chancellor Philip Hammond spoke to the press Weds, largely with the intent of critiquing the spending plans in the Labour manifesto. However, the take out from the press conference turned to the PMs failure to convincingly back Chancellor Philip Hammond’s return to head the Treasury following the election.

–MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

Source: MNI

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