UK VOTE: Election 2017 – The Road To Downing Street: MNI

–Adds overnight YouGov poll (conventional method)

LONDON (MNI) – Latest polling data

Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP

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YouGov 01/06/2017 42% 39% 7% 4% 2% SurveyMonkey 31/05/2017 44% 38% 6% 4% 3% Kantar 31/05/2017 43% 33% 11% 4% 3% IpsosMori Scotland 31/05/2017 25% 25% 5% 1% 43% Survation 29/05/2017 43% 37% 8% 4% 2% Opinium 27/05/2017 45% 35% 7% 5% 2% ComRes 27/05/2017 46% 34% 8% 2% 3% ORB 27/05/2017 44% 38% 7% 5% 2% YouGov/Sun Times 27/05/2017 43% 36% 9% 4% 2% ICM/Sun 27/05/2017 46% 32% 8% 5% 2% YouGov/Times 26/05/2017 43% 38% 10% 4% 2% Kantar 05/05/2017 42% 34% 9% 4% 2% ICM/Guardian 23/05/2017 47% 33% 9% 4% 2% Survation 22/05/2017 43% 34% 8% 4% 2% YouGov/Sun Times 21/05/2017 44% 35% 9% 3% 2% ORB 20/05/2017 46% 34% 7% 7% 3% Opinium 20/05/2017 46% 33% 8% 5% 2% YouGov/Times Scotland 20/05/2017 29% 19% 6% 1% 2% 42% Ipsos/Mori 18/05/2017 49% 34% 7% 2% 3% YouGov/Times 18/05/2017 45% 32% 8% 6% 2%

**National campaigning was suspended on May 23 in the wake of the Manchester terrorist attack. Campaigning resumed May 26

The UK Parliament was dissolved on Tuesday May 3, triggering a near 6-week campaign ahead of the June 8 election.

To win an outright majority in the UK, the winning party must pick up 326 of the 650 constituency seats fought, although 323 will normally be enough for a working majority, as the likely 4 or 5 Sinn Fein MPs will not take their seats at Westminster.

The latest polls show the governing Conservative Party will easily reach this target, surpassing the majority 330 seats they won at the 2015 election.

Historically, the two main parties are the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right Conservative Party. As last time, the economy will be a major battle ground, but analysts expect Brexit to be the overriding feature of the election.

The Conservatives are led by current Prime Minister Theresa May, who assumed the role last July in the wake of the EU referendum defeat for David Cameron. Jeremy Corbyn has led the Labour Party since the summer of 2015.

The Scottish Nationalist Party look likely to surrender some of the spectacular gains made in 2015, perhaps to a resurgent Scottish Conservative Party, but will remain by far the largest party north of the border.

With Brexit all but secured, the UK Independence Party, UKIP, will likely see a fall in their overall vote share and it seems unlikely they will return any MPs. Douglas Carswell, the only UKIP MP in the last Parliament, resigned from the party earlier this year and said he would not seek re-election in 2017.

The Liberal Democrats will hope pick up some seats, particularly in areas that voted heavily ‘Remain’ in 2016, but they enter the election at a very low base. They won just 8 seats, down sharply from the 56 held at the 2015 dissolution.

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June 1

Despite indications that he wouldn’t attend, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn did appear for the televised leaders’ debate in Cambridge. PM Theresa May did not appear.

A further mixed bag of polling data in the past 24 hours, with the latest conventional YouGov poll showing the Conservative lead shrinking to 3% over Labour.

May 31

The BBC will hold their main election debate Wednesday, although nother Prime Minister Theresa May or leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn expected to participate.

May 30

Prime Minister Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn faced audience questions on a TV special Monday. May again tried to focus on Brexit, with Corbyn looking at his plans for an extended welfare state. Both got through the evening without major mishap, thus offering little new to the overall story.

May 28

Weekend polls showed a continued narrowing of the overall polls, although not breaking below the 5-point Conservative lead seen in Friday’s YouGov poll.

May 26

National campaigning resumes Friday against the backdrop of Monday’s terror attack. Prime Minister Theresa May is in Sicily for the G7 meeting of heads of government. Labour leader will hope to build on improved poll readings, delivering a speech on dealing with terrorism.

May 25

National campaigning by the main parties is likely to resume on Friday. Thursday will see a national minute of silence at 1100 local time and local campaigning is expected to begin. Conservatives, Labour and the LibDems are all expected to return to the national trail Friday, although PM Theresa May will be in Italy for the G7 gathering.

May 24

Campaigning remains suspended Wednesday.

Overnight, the UK raised the security threat level to Critical, the highest on the scale, suggesting a further attack was likely imminent. The heightened security level could see military personnel patrolling certain parts of the UK, offering back up to the police at major sporting and cultural events.

May 23

Following the terrorist attack in Manchester Monday, campaigning for the General Election has been suspended ‘until further notice’,

May 22

UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a pre-election grilling Monday, as she was subjected to a bruising interview on a day the calm fell away from the ruling party’s election campaign. May’s TV appearance came at the end of a harrowing day on the campaign trail. After a weekend that saw a string of opinion polls pointing to a much reduced Conservative lead, there was already unease amongst Tory campaign managers, but helped as May face a hostile press conference accusing her of policy u-turns on a recent manifesto pledge. How Monday will play out into the opinion polls is yet to be seen, but for sure, any feeling of complacency Conservative high command had will now be firmly set aside. Interviewed on BBC, May was pressed on matters from public spending, to trust, Brexit and migration levels going forward.

May 19

The first Leaders’ Debate of the election was held Thursday, although Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, the leaders of the two largest parties, declined to take place. The debate saw the leaders of UKIP, the SNP, the LibDems, Plaid Cywmru and the Greens discuss issues.

May 18

The Conservatives will publish their election manifesto Thursday, with pre-briefings to the press suggesting there will be a revised timetable for eliminating the deficit, seeing the date pushed back to the mid 2020s. There is also expected to be confirmation that the tax lock committment from 2015 will also be dropped.

PM May and Chancellor Philip Hammond spoke to the press Weds, largely with the intent of critiquing the spending plans in the Labour manifesto. However, the take out from the press conference turned to the PMs failure to convincingly back Chancellor Philip Hammond’s return to head the Treasury following the election.

May 16

The Labour Party officially launched their manifesto Tuesday, with a promise to govern ‘for the many, not the few’. The party offered up a massive platform of spending, financed through an additional tax take of stg48.6 billion, in large part from an increase in corporation tax.

The Liberal Democrats also launch their manifesto on Tuesday, with leader Tim Farron promising a second public vote on Brexit.

May 15

Tuesday sees the formal launch of the Labour manifesto, although much of the detail was reportedly leaked last week. There has been a flow of spending pledges from Labour in recent weeks, but they have said it will all be fully costed in the manifesto.

May 14

UK Brexit Minister David Davis said Sunday sequencing of exit negotiations with the EU would be the ‘row of the summer’, saying it was illogical to discuss the status of the Northern Ireland Border with the Republic of Ireland before terms of a trade deal were known.

May 10

The Crown Prosecution Service said Wednesday that no charges would be brought against Conservative politicians and officials over the infringement of campaign expense rules in the run-up to the 2015 General Election. However, the CPS said one file would remain open – the investigation into irregularities in the South Thanet constituency.

May 9

PM May said Monday the Conservatives will include a plan to ‘cap’ certain energy prices, ending the “injustice” of rising costs. In an interview with the Sun, published overnight, May said “Like millions of working families, I am fed up with rip-off energy prices. Gas and electricity bills only ever seem to go in one direction, eating up more and more of your monthly pay packet.”

May 8

The week ahead is likely to see the publication of the main party manifestoes, outlining their campaign platforms for the forthcoming election.

THURSDAY, JUNE 1, 2017 – 03:43

–MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

Source: MNI

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