The US$ and EUR$ indices have both closed with indecision-style weekly candles so, if you’re struggling to pick a decent trend at the moment, then that probably helps to explain why. The US$ index has yet to make or break a bearish H&S pattern and I suspect this choppiness might continue until such time as it does.
USDX daily:This chart still has the look of a bearish H&S for now so watch for any continued respect of 102 or break below the 100 neck line region to help develop this technical pattern. However, any continued respect of 100 and break back above 102 would void this pattern:
USDX daily Cloud: price remains below the daily Cloud and the Cloud has flipped to bearish:
USDX weekly Cloud: the weekly candle closed as an indecision-style Doji:
EURX weekly Cloud: the weekly candle closed above the Cloud but as an indecision-style Spinning Top:
USD data for next week: there are only a few high impact data items with the regular Weekly Unemployment Claims and Crude Inventories being two of these and so second and third tier data might assume greater significance in this relative vacuum. The daily shifting sands that seems to have assumed the US political landscape need to be monitored as well as Friday saw a bit of ‘flight to safety’ movement towards the Yen.
Summary: Watch for a clear make or break of the 100 (neckline) or 102 (shoulder) region to either confirm or void the H&S pattern. I expect currency trading of many FX pairs will remains choppy until there is a clear-cut make or break of this range-bound action and technical pattern.