US$ < 100 & FX radar for 1st day of Feb

The US$ looks certain to close below the key 100 level for the day and, thus, for January and any continued weakness will have implications for many currency pairs; the effects of which are being seen already. A number of breakout trades from charts posted over the w/e have got moving and the pip tally from these is 300 pips with an extra 0.35 cents thrown in from a b/o move on Silver. All discussed below.

USDX daily: the index looks set to close below 100 for the day and the month and price looks like closing below the daily Cloud as well. A hold below both of these levels is obviously bearish and with implications for many currency pairs. There is a fair bit of US data to monitor tonight with Private NFP (ADP), ISM Manufacturing PMI, Vehicle Sales, Construction spending and FOMC so watch to see if one or other of these cement a move in the US$ either above or below the key 100 level.

Successful Trend line breakout trades this farthese are from charts that were posted over the w/e :

GBP/NZD 4hr: 200 pips

Silver 4hr: this chart was posted yesterday:

This is the 4hr chart this morning showing a 0.35 cent breakout triggered overnight:

EUR/AUD 4hr: just 60 pips for the time being:

NZD/USD 4hr: a 50 pip move here and note the move above the key 0.73 level.

EUR/USD 4hr: a 50 pip breakout move here along with a new TC 4hr LONG:

Other FX to watch:

USD/CAD: I Tweeted yesterday to watch for any looming H&S on the 4hr chart and this was the chart from that Tweet:

Today’s 4hr chart shows that the long-term wedge trend line has been broken but watch also for any break and hold below the key 1.30 level. BoC Gov Poloz speaks shortly so keep an eye out for any impact here:

The 30 min chart of the Loonie shows that stalking for weakness here could have been profitable with a 100 pip move off a TC signal:

EUR/JPY daily: watch wedge trend lines for any breakout:

AUD/USD 4hr: a bullish b/o is looming here and any continued US$ weakness would help this cause. Watch today with CNY Manufacturing PMI:

AUD/JPY 4hr: the bottom wedge trend line has broken so watch for any follow-through:

GBP/USD 4hr: US$ weakness is helping here BUT there is a lot of GBP data still to come this week with HPI and Manufacturing PMI tonight:

USD/JPY 4hr: watch for any breakout here:

GBP/JPY 4hr: watch trend line for any new breakout, especially with all of the GBP data to come this week:

USD/TRY 4hr: watch for any make or break at this major support junction:

USD/CNH 4hr: watch the wedge trend lines for any breakout:

USD/MXN daily: this has been bearish this week following last week’s print of a bearish-reversal Evening Star pattern. I’m watching the wedge trend lines and for any move down to test the 20.15 – 20 region. Any support from the 20 region might help develop up a bearish H&S though:

 

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