The US$ is behind the wheel of recent movement and the index has now moved below a major S/R level. The FX indices are heading towards a ‘risk on‘ alignment and I’m keeping watch for any such outcome.
USDX: the US$ has had a bad start to the week and this weakness has been driving some FX movement:
USDX daily: the 95.50 has given way. Note how it failed at the 61.8% fib.
USDX weekly: watch for any movement down towards the 92.50 level:
EURX daily: I wrote over the w/e to watch the 100 level here and it’s still holding for now:
Gold 4hr: this just keeps drifting higher and if the US$ keeps tanking then I think this will eventually take on the combined $1,380 + 5yr bear trend line breakout region:
Silver 4hr: some trend lines to watch for any breakout that might trigger but watch for any increased momentum to confirm:
Oil: the $40 handle remains the key level to watch for any potential bounce as this would support the weekly chart’s bullish-reversal ‘inverse H&S’:
EUR/USD: I had ignored this signal because it triggered before last week’s BoJ meeting BUT note how it has moved on anyway. It’s now back above the 1.12 major S/R level and has cleared the congested daily 200EMA area !
E/U monthly: we’re up to our 20th monthly candle near this 1.12 level!
GBP/USD: this has triggered a new TC LONG signal and note the movement overnight following the better than expected GBP Construction PMI data:
G/U 30 min:
EUR/AUD 4hr: this signal was ignored ahead of the RBA and it has failed, so, it was one well left!
E/J 4hr: broke lower but is not very inspiring:
A/U 4hr: so much for the rate cut. The Aussie is sitting at a major junction being just under a major 3 yr bear trend line.
NZD/USD 4hr: choppy under the 0.73 S/R level:
USD/JPY: well, we got the test of the 100/100.50 area. Watching for any bounce from here to support the weekly inverse H&S.
USD/CAD: I’m keeping an open mind here with Oil trading at the $40 handle. Any bounce with Oil off this support plus any continued US$ weakness could see this pair head lower and this would bring the 1.30 level back into focus.
The charts show that there still hasn’t been a daily chart or weekly chart wedge breakout. Also note the look of the Bear Flag on the weekly chart!:
GBP/AUD 4hr: no breakout here yet:
GBP/NZD 4hr: there has been a channel breakout here but no new TC signal just yet: