US$, exotics, TLs and TC

The US$ is having a rough time at the moment with some jawboning from the US President adding to its woes during the last session. The obvious Go-To pairs for US$ weakness are the exotic USD pairs and the USD/MXN and USD/TRY were clear examples of just that overnight. As mentioned over the w/e, caution might be needed trading the cross pairs if this US$ weakness picks up.

USDX daily: watch for any make or break at 100 and, after that, the triangle support trend line:

US$ weakness ‘Go To’ pairs: The exotic USD pairs would have been the obvious ones to stalk following Trump’s US$ comments.


USD/MXN 4hr: lower following Trump’s US$ comments:

USD/MXN 5 min: there was one failed LONG signal but, really, one would have been stalking LONGs here anyway. There were two profitable TC LONG signals:

USD/TRY: I mentioned yesterday to watch fib levels for any continued weakness and I note price has made it down to the 61.8% fib. I’d be careful loading any new SHORTs here in case this fib offers support!

USD/TRY 4hr: note the move off the resistance trend line back down to the 61.8% fib:

USD/TRY 30 min; just one new TC signal during this session but, what a good one!

USD/CNH 4hr: this was another bearish move as well:

Trend line breakout signals update: some of these breakout moves have continued and this is the pip tally update:

Gold: this breakout signal has now given 200 pips but note how price is now at a MAJOR 6-year bear trend line so expect some possible choppiness here whilst it negotiates this major resistance:

Gold 4hr:

Gold weekly: butting up against a 6-year bear trend line:

EUR/JPY 4hr: now up to 100 pips:

USD/JPY: now, also, 100 pips BUT watch for any support here from the daily chart’s 50% fib:

U/J 4hr:

U/J daily: note the 50% fib just under current price. If this gives way then look to the 61.8% fib:

GBP/AUD 4hr: has given 140 pips BUT care is needed now as cross pairs could become choppy IF the US$ gets moving:

GBP/NZD: this has given 200 pips but has now bounced back down from a 20-month bear trend line:

G/N 4hr:

G/N weekly:

GBP/USD;  this has given 70 pips after the 4hr chart wedge breakout but price is now testing the daily chart’s triangle trend line so watch for any new make or break from there:

GBP/USD 4hr:

GBP/USD daily:

Other FX:

EUR/USD 4hr: this daily support trend line has held:

AUD/USD daily: the 50% fib has held for now:

AUD/JPY 4hr: this support trend line has held for now so watch for any make or break move:

GBP/JPY 4hr: still testing this bottom trend line:

USD/CAD 4hr: weaker:

EUR/AUD 4hr: still ranging within the daily triangle for now:

EUR/NZD 4hr: choppy…as cross pair may be if US$ movement persists:


MMM By Mary McNamara


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