US$ higher but FX still fairly quiet relative to stocks

The US$ is a bit higher but still range-bound under the $100. There is a batch of USD data in the next US session and I’ll be interested to see if this can shake the US$ out of its recent trading range. Stocks have bounced on the back of stronger Oil and some dovish Fed comments. The latter seeming to suggest to traders that the US rate-hike schedule may not be aggressive as previously thought. Forex movement still remains fairly modest with respect to the moves happening across stock markets and the key S/R levels I’ve had in focus on many pairs still remain in place.

USDX daily: higher on the day which might surprise given the Fed comments BUT still range-bound and under the key 100 S/R level. Watch these trend lines with tonight’s US data:


S&P500 30 min: a Big Dipper kind of wild ride here:


Gold weekly: a bit lower with the stronger US$ BUT keep an eye on the wedge trend lines:


NB: weekend updates will still be brief as summer holidays continue down here.

TC Signals:

EUR/GBP 4hr: this signal looks like it could close off but I’d said yesterday that I expected a test of this key 0.75 level. Any hold above 0.75 still supports the larger, 500-pip ‘Inverse H&S’ move.


EUR/AUD 4hr: the 1.55 remains a magnet here. This signal has closed off and I’m still thinking this 1.55 level could be a battle ground for a bit longer:


AUD/NZD 4hr: this has triggered a new TC signal. Keep in mind that there is a bullish pattern developing here on the monthly chart:

AN4 ANmonthlyCloud

Other FX: Friday brings USD Retail Sales, PPI & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

E/U daily: still range bound. Watch for any TL breakout that evolves with momentum::


E/J daily: no new 4hr TC signal here but price is still holding above the key 126.50 for now:


A/U daily: keep an eye on the 0.69 level:


A/J daily: marking time here too:


Cable daily: the demise is slowing here despite the dovish commentary accompanying last night’s BoE interest rate statement as this seems it may have already been priced in:


NZD/USD daily: I’m now looking for any potential ‘Double Bottom’ that might develop here:


U/J daily: the 117 continues to hold here for now. No new 4hr TC signal as yet:


GBP/JPY daily: watch for any bounce up from 167:


USD/CAD 4hr: higher but no new TC signal. Note the waning momentum:



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