US$ holds, along with FX, but US Stocks weaken by Mary McNamara

Better than expected US inflation and home sales data has helped to lift the US$ but, despite this good news, US stocks are trading lower given the mixed messaging from recent US$ movement.

USDX 4hr: the US$ has held up within a possible Bull Flag but I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t rallied higher given the up-beat US data. Whilst still printing a potentially bullish pattern, it isn’t looking too convincing just at the moment:


EURX monthly: the monthly candle doesn’t close until mid next week but any continued hold above 96 will help to print a bullish pattern here too:


S&P500: no new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross yet:


Silver and Gold: both are holding up pretty well given the bit of US$ strength overnight:

Silver daily:


Gold daily:


TC Signals: the three TC signals are still open and have moved on slightly.

A/U: this spiked up to the key 61.8% fib level of the 2000-2008 bull run last night to now give up to 150 pips:

A/U 4hr:


A/U monthly: showing the 61.8% fib significance. From a monthly chart perspective: this may simply be a test of a major broken fib level before bearish continuation :-(


 A/J: has given up to 110 pips:


Kiwi: has moved on to give 120 pips but is holding below the 0.77 S/R level. There is NZD Trade Balance data later this morning that will most likely impact here:

Kiwi 4hr: under 0.77 ahead of key Trade Balance data:


Kiwi daily: the 0.77 level is key S/R:


Other FX: apart form NZD Trade Balance there is EUR German Ifo Business Climate data and USD Core Durable Goods data to come in the next 24 hrs:

E/J: holding above a support trend line:


Cable: the 1.50 level is proving to be a challenge. Weak GBP data overnight undermined any successful attempt at this level:


U/J daily: still choppy along with the US$:


Loonie: still ranging in my potential ‘Handle’ pattern:


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