US$ lower: has the penny dropped?

The US$ is trading lower and is now printing a bearish weekly candle as it continues to struggle at the 100 resistance level. There are many suggesting this is simply a technical pause and some profit taking rather than any fundamental shift in US$ sentiment. I still can’t help but think, however, that the penny might have dropped that any small and gradual US rate increase won’t be sufficient to sustain this rally.

USDX weekly:  Is the ‘Double Top’ going to win out here?


S&P500 30 min: took a bit of a breather:


Gold: may benefit if US$ weakness develops. Note the bullish daily candle…the largest in a LONG time!

Gold weekly:


Gold daily: note the bullish daily Candle:


TC Signals: two have closed but I have two new ones:

U/J: closed off:


GBP/JPY: closed off and has pulled back to the daily trend line:


A/U: this has printed a new LONG TC signal BUT note how price action has slowed as it meets the major monthly bear trend line, a trend line that was recently broken:

A/U 4hr:


A/U monthly:


Keep these ‘absolutes’ in mind here when considering this signal though:


GBP/AUD: this is a new SHORT signal BUT inversely correltaed with the A/U above:

G/A 4hr:


G/A daily:


Other FX: there is a speech from ECB President Draghi and CAD CPI and Retail Sales data still to come this week.

E/U 4hr: has broken up through the bear trend line BUT without any momentum for now as the looming Draghi speech will obviously be weighing here. Watch for any supporting momentum after this speech:


E/J 4hr: just can’t escape the 132 level:


A/J 4hr: a triangle break BUT with no confirming momentum. Maybe it’s waiting for an attack on the major 89 level that is just above?


Cable 4hr: has closed above the 1.525 level:


Kiwi: this is also trading higher BUT with no confirming momentum. I’m still open to the weekly chart’s bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S here:

Kiwi 4hr: watch for any bullish continuation to possibly target the congested zone near the major S/R 0.67 level as this is also near the monthly pivot and 50 and 60% fibs:


Kiwi weekly:


USD/CAD 4hr: watch here for any impact from tonight’s CAD data:


GBP/NZD daily: drifting here:


EUR/AUD daily: channel bound here:


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