The US$ is still trapped under some localised resistance but it was the slump with Oil that primarily dragged overall sentiment down overnight. Oil and the S&P500 are highly correlated at the moment but… for how long? The price action on both suggest they are ‘consolidating’ and I continue watching for any breakout move. This fluctuating sentiment is playing the expected havoc with FX pairs.
Oil daily: this is chopping around within a daily chart wedge and the ADX reveals the general lack of momentum here as the momentum indicator trades below the 20 threshold. One has to wonder if Oil is simply biding its time before either a bullish or bearish breakout so watch the wedge trend lines for any breakout move, up or down, that evolves with increasing momentum:
Oil monthly: the monthly candle doesn’t close until after next Monday. Any monthly close above the Jan close of $33.74 would help to print a bullish candle and this is worth watching for as it would most likely print a bullish-reversal ‘Hammer’ candle off this major GFC support region. Now, I do know Oil doesn’t so much trade to a technical drum as rather a fundamental one however this type of candle, if it evolved, would be rather something!
Ryan Detrick Tweeted earlier that: Crude and the SPX have traded in the same direction 11 consecutive days. It has made it to 12 straight only once (Feb ’05). Thus, with Oil down for the day so too was the S&P500, however, I do note there has been a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross although this is a weak signal and the angles aren’t overly supportive just yet:
S&P500 daily Cloud:
USDX 4hr: still under the resistance of the 50% fib and 4hr 200 EMA. As well, the USDX and EURX remains divergent on their 4hr and daily Ichimoku charts and these periods generally create choppy trading conditions on the 4hr time frame. Something I’m seeing at the moment!:
Silver 4hr: triangle bound above the $15 support:
Gold 4hr: triangle bound above the $1,200 support:
TC Signals: I noted above how the FX indices are divergent and that this generally creates choppy trading from the 4hr time frame charts. This is being reflected in this week’s TC signals; in much the same way as per last week.
A/U 4hr: closed off after just 70 pips:
A/J 4hr: closed for a loss of 100 pips:
NZD/USD 4hr: closed off after just 60 pips:
EUR/AUD 4hr: closed off after 300 pips:
Other FX: the only high impact data today is US Crude Oil Inventories:
E/U 4hr: still chopping along the 61.8% fib and 1.10 level:
EUR/JPY: I’d said on the w/e that if price holds below 126 then 115 might be the target. I’m still thinking so….. as long as the BoJ don’t meddle:
GBP/USD: I said earlier in the week to watch for any triangle breakout, up or down, and then to watch either 1.40 or 1.46. Well, the triangle break was down and we’ve got the test of 1.40 for over 200 pips The level to watch now is the 1.40 as this is major S/R as seen on the monthly chart:
U/J 4hr: consolidating:
GBP/JPY weekly: some targets to watch for any bearish continuation, but, as for the E/J…. so long as the BoJ don’t meddle:
USD/CAD 4hr: not a convincing breakout just yet:
EUR/GBP 4hr: higher but choppy as it goes:
p style=”text-align: justify”>