US$: next path still not clear

The US$ index has closed the week out of the recent trading channel and above the 95.50 BUT with an indecision-style ‘Inside’ candle. I don’t think US$ Bulls can get too excited just yet as the index sits near the half-way mark of an 18-month trading channel formed up by the 100 and 92.50 levels. A decisive move away from this half way point and, then, a break of either 92.50 or 100 is needed to help confirm the next directional move on the index. Don’t lose sight of the EURX though as it is trying to break free from the resistance of the weekly Cloud and success here would be a rather bullish signal for this index.

NB: This is just a brief update as we are still on day three of a three-day wedding feast.

USDX daily: a bullish channel break and hold above 95.50, albeit only just, BUT note the absence of momentum:

USDXdaily

USDX weekly: an indecision-style ‘Inside’ candle.

USDXweekly

EURX weekly: note the bullish engulfing candle here though:

EURXweekly

Ichimoku Cloud:

We have the unusual situation where both the US$ index and EUR$ index are trading above their 4hr and daily Cloud. However, the USDX is stuck in the bottom of the daily Cloud whereas the EURX is near the top of it’s weekly Cloud. Any bullish weekly Cloud breakout for the EURX would be the first in almost two years and so would be very significant. 

USDX weekly Cloud: the index is above the 4hr and daily Cloud BUT stuck within the resistance of the weekly Cloud. I won’t get too excited about any directional move, up or down, until this resistance is cleared:

USDXweeklyCloud

EURX weekly Cloud: this is trading near the top of the weekly Cloud so watch for any bullish breakout:

EURXweeklyCloud

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